114
FXUS64 KBMX 292053
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
353 PM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Southwest flow through the early afternoon will bring plenty of
moisture to the area with PW values around max climatologically
for this time of year. Scattered to numerous showers will continue
through the rest of the day and into the early evening.
Instabilities are around 2000 to 2500 at most, with little to no
shear. Would expected mostly rain, with isolated to scattered
thunderstorms. Any activity today will produce high rain rates
with so much moisture in the air. Later this afternoon into the
evening, mid level winds begin to transition to out of the west as
high pressure starts developing across the MS Gulf coast. High
temperatures today will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s. Will
keep a Heat Advisory across the northwestern counties where shower
activity is expected to be more isolated and limited. Otherwise,
the rest of the area could see heat indices into the lower 100s.

Tonight, the mid level winds begin to transition to out of the
north, advecting drier and cool air into the midlevels. Low level
flow will remain out of the southwest through the morning. Plenty
of moisture will remain at the surface for fog development again
in the early morning, especially in areas that receive rain late
tonight. By Sunday late morning, low level flow will transition to
out of the northwest. Showers and thunderstorms are expected again
on Sunday late morning through the afternoon. Instabilities will
be higher Sunday afternoon thanks to that flow transition, with
amounts up to 3000 J/kg possible. Shear will be slightly higher
too, with 20-30 kt. Activity should be more isolated to scattered
as opposed to the numerous coverage we see today, but there
should be a higher chance for lightning and thunderstorms. Rain
rates will continue to be high with PW values staying near max for
this time of year.

Temperatures on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s. With the
high amount of moisture present, heat indices could reach 105 or
above for many places across the state. Have issued a Heat
Advisory for tomorrow.

24

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 304 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Continued the trend for lowering rain chances as upper level
ridging builds back over the region and drier air remains over the
area to start the work week. Moisture returns by mid week and
weaknesses in the ridge will keep isolated to scattered pops in
the forecast each afternoon though the end of the week.
Temperatures will be in the low to mid 90s with dewpoints staying
in the low to mid 70s each afternoon. This will keep heat indices
in the 103-106F range for portions of the area each afternoon.

14

Previous long-term discussion:
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 237 AM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Key message:

- After a brief respite from the humidity Monday for all but far
  southern portions of Central Alabama, heat indices will increase
  through the week with values near or above 105 degrees
  including on Independence Day.

Strong subtropical ridge will be centered over the ArkLaTex Sunday
night and Monday, with northerly to northwesterly flow aloft over
Central Alabama. Scattered showers and storms will be ongoing
Sunday evening along a pre-frontal trough. A much drier air mass
will move in on Monday. Have lowered PoPs below NBM and further
reductions may be necessary. Heat indices will remain near 105
across the south, but lower humidity levels are expected across
the north though the dry air mass will warm efficiently. The
subtropical ridge will move eastward over the area Monday night
through Tuesday night. The lower dew points will be short-lived as
higher dew points return from the east late Monday night in
advance of a back door wedge front building down the East Coast.
Increasing moisture with southeasterly flow and convergence along
the wedge front will result in chances for isolated to widely
scattered showers and storms returning. Lower highs will occur on
Tuesday in the far eastern counties with the wedge while
temperatures remain warm in the west where a few spots could see
heat indices reaching 105. Ridging builds aloft Wednesday and
Thursday, with some model disagreement on whether a weakness
begins to develop by Friday. A tropical-like air mass will result
in mainly widely scattered afternoon and evening showers and
storms. Increasing temperatures and dew points will result in
increasing heat indices near or above 105 each day.

32/Davis

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT SAT JUN 29 2024

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will move through the
area today. Tried to time out some of the imminent convection,
otherwise, have gone with VCSH to account for uncertainty in
timing. Rainfall rates will be high, so any activity over a TAF
site could easily drop visibilities to LIFR. Otherwise, fog
development is possible again in the early morning. Have left out
of the TAF for now to see the extent of the rain tonight. Isolated
thunderstorms are possible again beginning late morning.

24

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A humid air mass will remain in place over the weekend with
scattered to numerous showers and storms. A drier air mass
temporarily moves in on Monday with RH values in the 35 to 40
percent range across the northern half of Central Alabama, and 40
to 50 percent range across the south. Minimum RH values increase
to above 45 percent areawide for Tuesday. Winds generally remain
light Sunday, and become northerly Monday at 5 to 8mph.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     72  93  70  94 /  20  60  20   0
Anniston    73  93  72  93 /  20  70  20  10
Birmingham  74  93  73  95 /  20  70  20   0
Tuscaloosa  74  94  73  94 /  20  60  20   0
Calera      72  92  74  95 /  20  60  20   0
Auburn      72  92  74  94 /  30  60  40  40
Montgomery  73  94  74  96 /  30  70  40  30
Troy        73  92  73  95 /  40  70  40  50

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for the following
counties: Fayette-Greene-Lamar-Marion-Pickens-Sumter-Tuscaloosa-
Walker-Winston.

Heat Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM CDT Sunday for the following
counties: Autauga-Barbour-Bibb-Blount-Bullock-Calhoun-Chambers-
Cherokee-Chilton-Clay-Cleburne-Coosa-Dallas-Elmore-Etowah-
Fayette-Greene-Hale-Jefferson-Lamar-Lee-Lowndes-Macon-Marengo-
Marion-Montgomery-Perry-Pickens-Pike-Randolph-Russell-Shelby-St.
Clair-Sumter-Talladega-Tallapoosa-Tuscaloosa-Walker-Winston.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...24