Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
Issued by NWS Boise, ID
728 FXUS65 KBOI 291542 AFDBOI Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boise ID 942 AM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 .DISCUSSION...Morning GOES visible satellite imagery shows mostly clear skies across southwestern Idaho this morning where it will be hot and dry this afternoon. Meanwhile, in southeastern Oregon, clouds are spreading over the area with overcast skies now present across Baker County. It looks like it will be mostly cloudy in the Baker Valley into the afternoon which should hold afternoon temperatures down below the earlier forecast...so we will be updating the forecast to show more clouds and cooler temperatures there. Otherwise the forecast remains on track for a weak cold front to move through the area tonight cooling temperatures back down to near normal on Sunday. && KBOI...VFR and mostly clear across Southwestern Idaho. Increasing mid-level clouds this afternoon and isolated showers and thunderstorms late this evening northwest of KBNO-KONO-KMYL. Surface winds SE 5-10 kt, becoming NW 5-10 kt after 22Z/Sat. Sunday Outlook...Generally VFR. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing over the higher terrain. Surface winds: NW 10-20 kt, with gusts 25-30 kt southeast of KBOI. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...Today through Monday night...10 to 15 degrees warmer today under southwesterly flow aloft due to high pressure aloft building northward over Wyoming and Montana. To our west a Pacific cold front was approaching the northwest coast. The front will pass through eastern Oregon this evening and western Idaho overnight. Wind will shift to west or northwest with brief gusts 20-30 mph as the front passes, with scattered showers and thunderstorms (30-50 percent coverage) in Baker County, and 20-30 percent coverage in northern Harney County. A 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms will move across western Idaho north of the Snake Basin Sunday, and a 15-30 percent chance of thunderstorms will also develop near the Nevada Sunday afternoon. The greater instability will be in the northern area and stronger storms there may have wind gusts to 50 mph and small hail. Behind the cold front max temps Sunday will be 5 to 8 degrees cooler than today. A 20 percent chance of showers will continue through Sunday night and Monday in eastern Valley County but other areas will clear with normal temperatures. Monday afternoon will have breezy west/northwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Patchy smoke will continue over southeast OR and southwest ID today. LONG TERM...Tuesday through Saturday...Dry northwest flow will dominate Tuesday through Thursday as an upper level trough persists over Montana and a strong upper level ridge over the eastern Pacific gradually shifts east. Temperatures will warm a few degrees each day as the ridge axis approaches the coast, with temperatures climbing to around 5 degrees above normal by Thursday. Afternoon winds will be breezy with little to no chance of precipitation. The upper level ridge will move inland Friday and Saturday, with the ridge axis expected to be overhead or slightly to our east by Saturday. This will bring hotter temperatures, with lower valleys forecast to reach 100F on Saturday. Depending on how amplified the ridge becomes, temperatures could exceed 100F by several degrees Saturday and Sunday. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...None. OR...None. && $$ www.weather.gov/Boise Interact with us via social media: www.facebook.com/NWSBoise www.twitter.com/NWSBoise DISCUSSION...JB AVIATION.....JB SHORT TERM...LC LONG TERM....ST