674
FXUS65 KBOI 282027
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
227 PM MDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday night...Dry, cool northwest
flow will continue to bring seasonable temperatures to the
region tonight, with overnight lows in the upper 30s to low 40s
in many higher elevation locations. A weak ridge will begin to
build in tomorrow, bringing a return to hot, above normal
temperatures by the afternoon. Light winds will remain
throughout the region through tonight, the only exception being
the Snake River Valley, where some westerly gusts could reach
20-25 mph by the evening.

The pattern shifts as another upper level shortwave trough moves
through the region on Sunday morning, advancing a cold, moist
airmass into the region. The cold front will move through
southeast Oregon on Sunday morning and then through southwest
Idaho on Sunday afternoon. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will move in with the cold front, mainly over high terrain.
Winds will be breezy ahead of the front early Saturday, with
gusty outflow winds increasing outside of any showers or
thunderstorms. Temperatures will moderate to just slightly above
normal on Sunday after the front moves through.

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...A Pacific High will build
over the Eastern Pacific Ocean, bringing northwest flow into the
region on Monday. Temperatures will dip down to just about 5
degrees above normal, along with dry conditions. Models then
vary significantly on the evolution of this broad high.
Deterministic GFS/ECMWF solutions show the high building into
the desert southwest and bringing extremely hot temperatures
into our region, with 99th percentile highs in the valleys
reaching near 110F on Friday.The ECMWF AI and some of the
cluster ensembles however shows the ridge staying off the coast
which would moderate temperatures sufficiently. Current
forecasts show the valley reaching near the upper 90s, but if
the deterministic solution pans out, we could reach well over
100F. Conditions will be dry through next week, with the 8-14
day CPC outlook favoring below normal precipitation and above
normal temperatures for the region.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds: W-NW 5-15 kt
becoming SE less than 10 kt late tonight. Winds aloft at 10kft MSL:
W 5-15 kt.

KBOI...VFR and mostly clear. Surface winds stay NW 6-12 kt through
the day and turn SE 5-7 kt around midnight.

Weekend Outlook...Generally VFR. Increasing clouds late Saturday and
Sunday. A 15-30% chance of showers and thunderstorms will develop
over northeast Oregon Saturday night, spreading to southeast Oregon
and the higher terrain of southwest Idaho on Sunday. Surface winds:
SE-SW 5-15 kt on Saturday, becoming NW 10-20 kt Saturday night and
Sunday.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
OR...None.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...SA
LONG TERM....SA
AVIATION.....JM