713
FXUS65 KBOI 262059
AFDBOI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boise ID
259 PM MDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Friday night...Scattered showers
and thunderstorms continue to intensify with the afternoon
heating. A severe storm near Nyssa has caused significant wind
damage already and radar indicated 2" hail in the core of the
storm. Similiar storms expected to form this afternoon, with the
peak heating of the day. With high temperatures in the mid 90s
in the lower valleys today, CAPE values reach 1000-1500 j/kg
this afternoon along with sufficient effective bulk shear
(30-40kts) for strong and organized thunderstorms. High
resolution guidance also shows storms with rotating updrafts
capable of up to 1-2" hail this afternoon. Main threat will be
wind gusts up to 50-60kts with significant DCAPE of 1500 j/kg,
and heavy rain. Some storms may produce ponding of water, as
storm motions will be 10-20kts. Severe storm threat will slowly
wind down this evening, but thunderstorm threat will continue
into the night over the central ID mountains. Drier air will
move in from the west by Thursday morning, with about 15 degrees
of cooling on Thursday afternoon compared to today`s highs. Cool
northwest flow will continue into Friday with temperatures
around 5 degrees below normal.

.LONG TERM...Saturday through Wednesday...A shortwave ridge will
move over the area on Saturday, with temperatures rising back
into the mid 90s in the lower valleys. A trough off the Pacific
NW coast enhance the threat of showers and thunderstorms on
Saturday and Sunday. Westerly flow thereafter will keep
temperatures at or slightly above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...Mostly VFR with mid/high level clouds, with isolated to
scattered IFR in showers/thunderstorms across SE Oregon and SW
Idaho, continuing through the evening on the Idaho side. Outflow
gusts 30-55 kt, blowing dust and large hail possible. Hot
daytime temperatures will increase density altitude today.
Surface winds: SE to SW 10-20 kt with gusts to 25-35 kt in E
Oregon and near NV/ID border through 27/03Z. Winds aloft at
10kft MSL: SW 15-30 kt.

KBOI...Mostly VFR with mid/high level clouds. A 40% chance of
showers/thunderstorms hitting terminal between 26/18Z and 27/00Z,
with outflow gusts of 30-45 kt possible. Surface winds outside of
storms: NE-SE 5-15 kt, transitioning to NW this evening. Hot daytime
temperatures will increase density altitude today.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT this evening IDZ401-402.
OR...Red Flag Warning until 9 PM MDT /8 PM PDT/ this evening
     ORZ636-637.

&&

$$

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SHORT TERM...KA
LONG TERM....KA
AVIATION.....SP