458
FXUS61 KBOX 271132
AFDBOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
732 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and pleasant weather conditions develop today as a high
pressure briefly builds in. A more humid and more active
weekend is in store as a slow-moving frontal system brings
periods of showers and thunderstorms, with localized downpours
possible. Drier weather then returns for early next week with
seasonable temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Showers were moving offshore a little quicker than the last few
runs of the HRRR. Overall, thinking showers will be offshore by
9-10 AM, but may linger a little longer over the coastal waters
east of MA. Main adjustments to the forecast this morning were
to rainfall timing. Overall forecast trend remained on track.

Previous Discussion...

A cold front across southeast MA and the adjacent coastal
waters moves farther offshore today. Any lingering showers or
thunderstorms are expected to clear the MA coast by mid morning.
It may be closer to noon for it to clear the coastal waters
southeast of MA.

The main theme for today will be lower humidity with clearing
skies. Temperatures across the interior expected to be
generally be 5-8 degrees lower than yesterday. With the front
taking longer to clear southeast New England, and the influence
of the ocean, temperatures expected to be rather similar.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
High pressure expected to dominate our weather tonight and
Friday. Mainly clear skies with near normal temperatures and
comfortable humidity.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Highlights:

* More active for this weekend, with periods of showers and
  thunderstorms associated with a slow-moving frontal system.
  Heavy downpours appear to be the greatest risk, but it is
  uncertain if any storm(s) may become strong/severe.

* High pressure returns Monday and Tuesday.

* A warm front should approach Wednesday, starting a warming
  trend with increasing humidity.


A high pressure should eventually move offshore Saturday,
opening the door for a return to heat and tropical humidity
hading into Sunday. A slow moving-cold front is expected to
cross southern New England some time from late Sunday into
Sunday night. Ahead of this front, looking at another round of
showers and possible thunderstorms. The main concern at this
time remains localized downpours, but cannot yet completely
rule out the threat of strong gusty thunderstorm winds. Thinking
there is at least a high probability for some rainfall during
this time.

Near to slightly below normal temperatures with lower humidity
and dry weather anticipated for Monday and Tuesday, as a
high pressure moves through southern New England.
Wednesday still looking mostly dry, despite the approach of a
warm front which could trigger some showers.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Forecast Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today...High confidence in trends, moderate in exact timing.

Generally VFR across southern New England. Any lingering IFR
should dissipate by 14Z. Winds out of the west between 5 and
10 knots with gusts of 15 to 20 knots this morning.

Tonight and Friday...High Confidence.

VFR and dry. Northwest to north/northwest winds 5 to 10 knots.
Local seabreezes expected Friday.

KBOS TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.

KBDL TAF...High confidence in trends, moderate confidence in
timing.

Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: VFR.

Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA.

Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA,
slight chance TSRA.

Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA
likely, slight chance TSRA.

Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA.

Monday: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Forecaster Confidence Levels:

Low - less than 30 percent.
Medium - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

Today..High confidence.

Cold front enters the waters, which will shift winds to W
during the morning, along with improving visibility. However,
this front stalls just offshore. Seas across the outer waters
diminishing to 2-4 ft during this afternoon.

Tonight and Friday...High confidence.

Cold front just offshore finally accelerates out to sea, with
winds becoming NW 15-20 kt, highest across the eastern MA
waters. Winds light from the north Friday, leading to local
seabreezes. Dry weather and good vsby.


Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/...

Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt.

Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft.

Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds
with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain
showers, slight chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts
up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight
chance of thunderstorms.

Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms.

Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft.
Slight chance of rain showers.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM EDT this morning for ANZ254.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255.
     Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ256.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Belk
NEAR TERM...Belk
SHORT TERM...Belk
LONG TERM...Belk
AVIATION...Belk
MARINE...Belk