Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
Issued by NWS Boston, MA
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559 FXUS61 KBOX 271822 AFDBOX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA 222 PM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Dry and pleasant weather conditions develop today as a high pressure briefly builds in. A more humid and more active weekend is in store as a slow-moving frontal system brings periods of showers and thunderstorms, with localized downpours possible. Drier weather then returns for early next week with seasonable temperatures. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... No whole sale changes to the forecast, the showers are now well off shore with lingering lower clouds across Cape Cod and the Islands. Do think they will breakout into sunshine over the next hour or two. Dew point temperatures continue to fall, already in the upper 50s across northern Massachusetts, still holding on to some humidity along the coast as dew points are low/mid 60s, all though those will continue to fall this afternoon. A side note: NWS Boston/Norton is conducting a storm survey in the communities of Cumberland/Lincoln, Rhode Island and in North Attleborough, Massachusetts. We will share our findings later this afternoon. Previous Discussion... A cold front across southeast MA and the adjacent coastal waters moves farther offshore today. Any lingering showers or thunderstorms are expected to clear the MA coast by mid morning. It may be closer to noon for it to clear the coastal waters southeast of MA. The main theme for today will be lower humidity with clearing skies. Temperatures across the interior expected to be generally be 5-8 degrees lower than yesterday. With the front taking longer to clear southeast New England, and the influence of the ocean, temperatures expected to be rather similar. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... High pressure expected to dominate our weather tonight and Friday. Mainly clear skies with near normal temperatures and comfortable humidity. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... Highlights: * More active for this weekend, with periods of showers and thunderstorms associated with a slow-moving frontal system. Heavy downpours appear to be the greatest risk, but it is uncertain if any storm(s) may become strong/severe. * High pressure returns Monday and Tuesday. * A warm front should approach Wednesday, starting a warming trend with increasing humidity. A high pressure should eventually move offshore Saturday, opening the door for a return to heat and tropical humidity hading into Sunday. A slow moving-cold front is expected to cross southern New England some time from late Sunday into Sunday night. Ahead of this front, looking at another round of showers and possible thunderstorms. The main concern at this time remains localized downpours, but cannot yet completely rule out the threat of strong gusty thunderstorm winds. Thinking there is at least a high probability for some rainfall during this time. Near to slightly below normal temperatures with lower humidity and dry weather anticipated for Monday and Tuesday, as a high pressure moves through southern New England. Wednesday still looking mostly dry, despite the approach of a warm front which could trigger some showers. && .AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Forecast Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Moderate - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Through 00z... High confidence. VFR. Low chance of a spot shower, though the vast majority of the afternoon is dry. West/northwest wind 10 to 14 knots and occasional gusts 20 to 25 knots. Tonight... High confidence. VFR. Dry. Northwest to north/northwest, winds 5 to 10 knots, with winds of 10 to 13 knots for terminals on Cape Cod and islands. Friday... Moderate confidence. VFR, scattered cu around 5-7 all though dry. High pressure settles in with variable wind conditions while the flow is out of the west, there is a chance for winds to become south during the late morning with low confidence in sea breeze development. Will reassess this afternoon/evening update. Friday Night... High confidence. VFR. Perhaps a spot shower across western MA/CT prior to sunrise with southwest winds less than 10 knots. KBOS TAF... Moderate confidence in TAF after 12z Friday. VFR. Dry. W to NW wind tonight into early Friday, low confidence in a local sea breeze developing by late morning. Will reassess during the 00z TAF issuance. KBDL TAF... High confidence in TAF. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: VFR. Saturday: VFR. Breezy. Slight chance SHRA. Saturday Night: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Breezy. SHRA, slight chance TSRA. Sunday: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Breezy. SHRA likely, slight chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR. Breezy. Chance SHRA. Monday: VFR. && .MARINE... Forecaster Confidence Levels: Low - less than 30 percent. Medium - 30 to 60 percent. High - greater than 60 percent. Tonight through Saturday morning... Cold front moves off shore and high pressure moves in from the west which will ease seas and wind gusts. Dry conditions prevail during this time with patchy areas of marine fog possible southeast of Nantucket. West to northwest winds between 10 to 20 knots overnight, becoming lighter from the north by daybreak. Friday, there is a low chance of onshore winds developing during the afternoon along the south coast, eventually going south to southwest overnight into Saturday morning. Residual seas at 5 ft for the outer southern waters this afternoon and settles around 2-3 ft off shore and 1-2 ft near shore Friday into Saturday morning. Outlook /Friday Night through Monday/... Friday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Saturday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas locally approaching 5 ft. Saturday Night: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday: Moderate risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up to 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Rain showers likely, slight chance of thunderstorms. Sunday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain showers, isolated thunderstorms. Monday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching 5 ft. Slight chance of rain showers. && .BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...None. MA...None. RI...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ255. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Belk NEAR TERM...Belk/Dooley SHORT TERM...Belk LONG TERM...Belk AVIATION...Dooley MARINE...Dooley