481
FXUS64 KBRO 030549 AAB
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
1249 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Wednesday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Slightly above normal temperatures and rain-free conditions across
Deep South Texas will continue through the short term period as the
region remains under the influence of mid/upper level ridging.
Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will maintain
elevated humidity through tomorrow night, which will result in humid
nights and hot afternoons. High temperatures will range from the
upper 80s along the Lower Texas beaches to around 100 degrees across
the Rio Grande Plains. In combination with dew points in the 70s,
heat indices will range from 100 to 110 degrees. We likely will not
reach Heat Advisory criteria, but a Special Weather Statement may be
needed to account for elevate heat indices. If you`re spending time
outdoors, make sure you are following the necessary precautions
against the heat to reduce the risk of heat-related illnesses.
Otherwise, low temperatures will range from the mid 70s across the
Northern Ranchlands to low 80s along the immediate coast.

While many of us are preparing for 4th of July holiday activities,
now is a great time to review your hurricane season preparedness
plans and keep an eye on the forecast track of Hurricane Beryl. Make
sure you are relying on trusted sources of information, such as the
National Weather Service, National Hurricane Center, media stations,
local/county officials, etc. for the latest updates.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

For the start of the long term period a broad upper-level ridge
looks to be situated over the southern US, with an upper level
trough over the Northern Plains. Some model guidance is showing
this trough deepening through the end of the week, with the ridge
shifting further east. This would allow mid and upper level winds
over Texas and the Western Gulf to shift more southeasterly to
southerly by this weekend. Recent GFS runs have been fairly
consistent with moving the ridge further east, while ECMWF runs
are keeping the ridge intact over Texas and the Northern Gulf.

Through at least Friday, this pattern will continue to support
light to moderate southeasterly winds at the surface with hot
afternoon temperatures and near zero rain chances. Afternoon high
temperatures look to remain in the mid 90s to just above 100. Heat
indices look to peak around 110 Thursday and Friday afternoons,
likely remaining just below Heat Advisory criteria, though Heat
Advisories cant be ruled out.

Moving into the weekend, the primary concern for the forecast will
likely be Hurricane Beryl, which is currently a CAT 4 Hurricane in
the Central Caribbean. The latest NHC forecast has Beryl weakening
over the next few days as the system moves into a region of
unfavorable wind shear. The official track then has the system
making landfall along the Yucatan Peninsula before reemerging into
the Bay of Campeche. At this point, the forecast becomes very
uncertain as model guidance begins to diverge on both the track
and intensity of the storm. Uncertainty in the position of the
ridge mentioned earlier, the shear profile over the Western Gulf,
and how the land interaction will weaken the system make it
difficult to forecast any potential impacts for Deep South Texas
at this time. Forecast confidence should improve over the next few
days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the
region. That being said, now would be a great time to make sure
you have a plan and are prepared for hurricane season if you
havent already done so.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1242 AM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

About the only difference between the next 24 hours and the last
24 hours is an increase in southeasterly flow...courtesy of a
slightly stronger surface trough across the lee of the Sierra
Madre than in recent days. Otherwise...skies should remain fair
with mainly patchy, mostly VFR (few-scattered) cumulus and few-
scattered cirrus above it. Afternoon winds will get the usual
early to mid-afternoon sea breeze push, with strongest speeds
reaching McAllen just before sunset, which is typical in this
pattern. Winds drop back below 10 knots between 10 PM and 1 AM
Thursday.

So...other than the afternoon thermals...and decent period for
takeoffs and landings.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Tonight through Wednesday night...Light to moderate south winds and
low to moderate seas are expected through the period as surface high
pressure over the Gulf of Mexico persists.

Thursday through next Tuesday...High pressure over the Northern
Gulf will likely support light to moderate southeasterly winds and
slight seas through the later half of the week. Going into the
weekend, the forecast becomes less certain as Hurricane Beryl
likely enters the Gulf. The latest forecast from the National
Hurricane Center has Beryl weakening over the next couple of days
before crossing the Yucatan Peninsula on Friday and reemerging in
the Bay of Campeche as a Tropical Storm. Beyond that, models
diverge on both the intensity and track of Beryl, making it
difficult to forecast impacts for the Lower Texas Coast. At least
some uptick in wave heights and swell period will be likely, but
the extent to which they increase will depend on the exact track
and intensity. Forecast confidence should improve over the next
few days, painting a better picture of potential impacts for the
region.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BROWNSVILLE             82  95  81  95 /   0   0   0   0
HARLINGEN               77  97  77  97 /   0   0   0   0
MCALLEN                 80  99  80 100 /   0   0   0   0
RIO GRANDE CITY         79  99  78 100 /   0   0   0   0
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND      83  89  83  89 /   0   0   0   0
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL     80  93  79  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$


AVIATION...52-Goldsmith