849
FXUS61 KBTV 152324
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
724 PM EDT Sat Jun 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure building into the Northeast will provide a clear cool
night tonight, and partly cloudy skies Sunday along with low
humidity. Unfortunately, this nice weather will be short-lived as a
long-duration heat event moves in next week with several days of
highs in the 90s, dewpoints in the upper 60s to low 70s, and warm
overnight lows in the 60s and 70s. Heat related impacts are likely.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 719 PM EDT Saturday...No significant changes were needed
with this update. This afternoon`s fair weather cumulus are
dissipating as we`re losing daytime heating, and skies are
mainly clear to mostly clear at this hour. Winds have started to
abate, as well. Current temperatures are in the upper 50s to
mid 60s, and will continue to drop toward the 30s and 40s
through the evening/overnight. The forecast has this covered, so
only adjustments were some minor tweaks to sky cover and winds
to match the latest satellite and surface observations.

Previous discussion...Surface high pressure will crest over the
North Country and Vermont tonight providing clear and unseasonably
cool conditions with lows widespread through the 40s and some
isolated spots in the 30s. Isolated frost is possible in the hollows
of the Adirondacks and Northeast Kingdom of Vermont, but coverage is
not high enough to warrant any headlines. Dry conditions continue
through Sunday night, but as an upper ridge approaches from the
west, mid/high clouds will increase early Sunday and become
scattered to broken through the day and into Sunday night. Dry
conditions will prevail through much of Sunday night, but some
isolated showers are possible along the international border during
the pre-dawn hours of Monday as weak shortwave energy rides over the
ridge. Highs Sunday will warm back towards seasonal normal sin the
70s, and lows Sunday night will follow suit, perhaps a couple
degrees above normal in the 50s to low 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...A shortwave trough will be crossing to
the north of the forecast area early Monday, allowing for a few
showers along the international border before ridging builds into
the region to shut that off later Monday. The chance of
precipitation will be about 10- 30% throughout the day, and any
precip will most likely be in the form of isolated showers, though a
rumble of thunder is not out of the question in the afternoon.

The more noticeable weather will be decreasing cloud cover and
rising temperatures to mark the start of a very warm week. Highs
Monday will be in the lower to mid 80s, roughly 5-10 degrees above
climatological normals. Relative humidity values will be somewhat
moderate in the 40-60% range during the peak of heat. Monday night
will not provide much relief or cool down, unfortunately, with lows
expected to fall into only the 60s, about 10-15 degrees above
average.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 320 PM EDT Saturday...We continue to monitor an anomalously
strong ridge over the forecast area next week, producing high
temperatures 90+ Tuesday through Thursday with some lingering 90+
highs on Friday for some.

For Tuesday, some of the higher resolution models are starting to
coming in as well, indicating 90+ remains isolated to the wider
valleys like the St. Lawrence and Champlain, with upper 80s
elsewhere. However, the majority of models continue to suggest
widespread 90+ outside of the higher peaks Tuesday with projected
temperatures increasing slightly from what they were 12 hours ago.
The Canadian and GFS models are suggesting there could be some ridge
rider showers throughout the week, which could dampen temperatures.
The GFS in particular continues to hold onto slightly "cooler"
temperatures than other models, with expected highs in the 80s to
lower 90s Tuesday and Wednesday. ECMWF remains on the higher side of
the global models.

Regardless of precise numbers, humidity could make it feel much
warmer than the forecast says, with heat indices around 100 or so
each afternoon Tuesday-Thursday. In addition to daytime heat, nights
next week will not provide relief with lows in the mid 60s to lower
70s Tuesday night through Thursday night. For these reasons, we have
been placed in the Major and Extreme Heat Risk categories across the
forecast area. Plan on dangerous heat next week. Some ways to
mitigate these hazardous conditions include limiting outdoor
activities, knowing where your local cooling centers will be,
especially if you have no AC at home, and staying hydrated.

If we do indeed get some ridge rider forcing next week as the GFS
depicts, we will be on the lookout for severe thunderstorms as the
atmosphere would be well primed for severe weather with heat,
instability, and moisture streaming north from the Gulf of Mexico.
Extreme heat looks to finally breakdown next weekend after a cold
front drops through around the Friday time frame with some
associated precipitation possible. Still, highs will be in the 80s
for most following the front.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Through 00Z Monday...VFR conditions will prevail through the
period with VCFG possible at KMSS from 06-11z. Otherwise, skies
becoming clear through 06z, before high clouds begin to filter
in from the west, becoming SCT-BKN after 12Z Sunday. NW winds
5-10 kt early in the period will trend toward calm overnight,
and variable at 5 kt or less on Sunday.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA.
Monday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: VFR. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Hot temperatures will result in values near records by the
middle of next week. Below are some of the records under threat
of being broken.

Record High Temperatures:

June 18:
KBTV: 97/1994 Forecast 98
KMPV: 93/1994 Forecast 94
KPBG: 94/1994 Forecast 94
KMSS: 97/1994 Forecast 95
KSLK: 94/1907 Forecast 94

June 19:
KBTV: 100/1995 Forecast 97
KMPV: 95/1995 Forecast 95
KPBG: 93/2001 Forecast 94
KMSS: 94/1955 Forecast 94
KSLK: 93/1994 Forecast 91

June 20:
KBTV: 95/2012 Forecast 95
KMPV: 90/2020 Forecast 92
KPBG: 94/1964 Forecast 91
KMSS: 92/2012 Forecast 90
KSLK: 92/1995 Forecast 89

Record Low Temperatures:

June 16:
KSLK: 32/2020 Forecast 33


Record High Minimum Temperatures:

June 19:
KPBG: 70/1949 Forecast 70

June 20:
KPBG: 70/1953 Forecast 70
KSLK: 68/2012 Forecast 65

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Lahiff
NEAR TERM...Hastings/Lahiff
SHORT TERM...Storm
LONG TERM...Storm
AVIATION...Hastings/Lahiff
CLIMATE...Team BTV