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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
Issued by NWS Burlington, VT
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999 FXUS61 KBTV 270730 AFDBTV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Burlington VT 330 AM EDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A cold front will continue to produce scattered showers this morning across the region, before drier weather with increasing amounts of sunshine returns by this afternoon. Temperatures will only warm into the mid 60s to lower 70s with northwest winds 5 to 15 mph. A cool and clear night with some patchy valley fog is anticipated tonight, before a beautiful Friday is expected with plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures. Unsettled weather returns on Saturday afternoon into Sunday, along with breezy south winds. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Thursday...Surface analysis places cold frnt along the International Border this morning with scattered showers along this boundary. As this front drops south this morning, expect areas of scattered showers to prevail from northern NY into central/northern VT, with greatest concentration and highest qpf acrs the dacks into the northern VT mtns. A relatively strong area of high pres for late June wl continue to build southeast this aftn into Friday with much cooler and drier air developing on brisk north/northwest winds this aftn. As mixing develops this wl cause sfc dwpts to drop back into the 40s with increasing amounts of sunshine this aftn. As 1028mb high pres settles directly overhead by 12z Friday, expect mostly clear skies tonight with light north winds under 5 knots. Given these conditions and recent rainfall, anticipate some localized patchy fog, especially where cross over values are reaches, such as the northern Dack valleys and parts of the CT River Valley. Some uncertainty in fog/br coverage over central/northern VT, due to gradient. Also, a cool night is anticipated with lows mid 30s SLK to upper 40s/lower 50s CPV. Would not be surprised to see some patchy frost near SLK. Friday wl feature plenty of sunshine with just some fair wx cumulus acrs the trrn with temps warming into the upper 60s to mid 70s with very low humidity values. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...Dry conditions with seasonably mild temperatures are expected Friday; it will be a fantastic day to enjoy the outdoors with highs in the low/mid 70s and only some building cirrus clouds late in the day. Overnight, clouds increase and lower ahead of the next system with shower chances increasing over the St Lawrence Valley. With clouds and southerly flow increasing, temperatures will be warmer than Thursday night with lows in the mid/upper 50s to around 60 degrees. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 342 PM EDT Wednesday...A moderately strong area of low pressure is expected to move through eastern Canada Saturday through early Sunday bringing a fairly robust cold front with it. Winds will noticeably increase Saturday with gusts 20-30 mph, especially in the northern Champlain Valley, due to projected gradients. Expected evolution of this system is for a pre frontal wave to form bringing periods of showers Saturday with a stronger more consistent period likely Saturday evening into the overnight hours. With ample moisture transport, PWATs above 1.5", periods of moderate to heavy rain and embedded thunderstorms are probable. However, flow pattern aloft will promote faster system speed limiting the overall period of rainfall. As such, maintained less than a 10% for flash flooding concurring with WPC`s outlook of a marginal risk of flash flooding. Behind the front, shower chances linger mainly over terrain and upslope areas. These chances will diminish through Sunday with a dry period and return of high pressure heavily favored for early next week with a marked warming trend and highs running 5-8 degrees above seasonal averages generally in the mid 80s. Models depict the next period of precipitation beginning around midweek with the next system approaching from the west. && .AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... Through 06z Friday...Crntly VFR conditions at all sites except MVFR cigs at SLK with periods of light rain showers. These showers will slowly exit our terminal sites by 12z Thursday, but as winds shift to the northwest expect some lowering cigs toward MVFR at many sites. A period of blocked flow near sunrise could produce localized IFR conditions at BTV for an hour or two, but probability and confidence is too low attm to mention in TAF at BTV. Otherwise, higher confidence of IFR CIGS associated with upslope flow is expected at SLK, so have utilized tempo`s to indicate this potential. Otherwise, CIGS become VFR with clearing skies by 16z today with northwest winds 5 to 15 knots. Tonight winds become light north/northwest under 5 knots with some patchy fog possible toward 06z at SLK. Outlook... Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX. Friday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX. Saturday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Saturday Night: Mainly MVFR, with local IFR possible. Definite SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Sunday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance SHRA, Chance TSRA. Sunday Night: VFR/MVFR conditions possible. Slight chance SHRA, Slight chance TSRA. Monday: VFR. Slight chance SHRA. && .BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VT...None. NY...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Taber NEAR TERM...Taber SHORT TERM...Boyd LONG TERM...Boyd AVIATION...Taber