900
FXUS61 KBTV 240546
AFDBTV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Burlington VT
146 AM EDT Mon Jun 24 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong to severe thunderstorms are expected to continue this
evening. The greatest threats are damaging winds, hail, and the
potential for a tornado. Heavy rainfall could lead to localized
flash flooding in areas that receive multiple storms. Quieter but
still unsettled weather continues into the start of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1231 AM EDT Monday...Despite a 996 mb low being centered
right over the region, most areas are currently seeing a lull
in the showers. More will slowly move down into the region from
Canada later tonight, but radar over Quebec has been showing
less showers than models had, so trimmed PoPs early this
morning along the international border. The cold front is still
to the northwest so it will be another mild night. A little
cooler air will attempt to bleed down the Champlain Valley from
Quebec, but it is currently still north of the international
border.

Previous Discussion...Showers and strong to severe
thunderstorms are moving across the forecast area this
afternoon, producing heavy rain, damaging winds, frequent
lightning, and hail. There remains the potential for a tornado
with any of these thunderstorms.

Tonight, thunderstorms will largely become just showers and showers
will become less widespread in coverage as we lose daytime heating
and a relatively drier air mass moves into place behind a cold
front. Still, lows will only fall into the lower to mid 60s, a few
degrees above seasonable averages. Any additional showers and storms
will result in anywhere from a few hundredths of an inch to a
quarter of an inch of fresh rainfall. Winds are likely to remain
elevated aloft overnight.

For tomorrow, an upper level low containing cooler air will slide
across the forecast area, which may produce some low topped showers.
An isolated thunderstorm remains possible, but it is not likely, and
it would not be severe. High temperatures will be about 5-10 degrees
cooler than average in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Showers will come
to an end tomorrow night as dry air finally takes hold of our
forecast area and forcing moves away. Lows will fall into the 50s
for most.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Tuesday will see plenty of sunshine
with no precipitation expected. Highs will reach into the lower
to mid 80s. Monday night`s lows will be in the upper 40s to
upper 50s, but Tuesday night will be a good 5-10 degrees warmer
as flow starts to shift to the southwest ahead of an approaching
cold front. Scattered showers with a few embedded thunderstorms
will spread across much of the region late Tuesday night/early
Wednesday morning, but the bulk of the activity associated with
the cold front will hold off until after daybreak.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 338 PM EDT Sunday...Wednesday will be the most active of the
period as moisture streams back northward ahead of a cold front
moving in from the west. While model soundings continue to indicate
a potential capping warm layer around 800 mb, still expect showers
and thunderstorms to develop ahead of the front and/or along a pre-
frontal trough. SB CAPE values are progged to reach 500-1200 J/kg,
and with 0-6km shear of 30-40kt, strong to severe thunderstorms
would possible. We`ll continue to monitor trends as this system gets
closer.

The cold front moves through by Wednesday night, ushering in a drier
airmass. High pressure will settle over the region, bringing a
couple of dry, pleasant days with seasonable highs in the 70s to
around 80F and lows in the 40s and 50s. Our next chance of rain will
move in on Saturday with another frontal system lifting across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Through 18Z Monday...A cold front will slowly pass through the
region from north to south. It will bring showers, change winds to
northwesterly, and bring lower ceilings behind it. Currently it is
over Quebec and most terminals are VFR. It should pass through MSS
and then SLK by 12Z. It looks to pass BTV, PBG, EFK and MPV by 18Z,
and RUT by 00Z. Behind the front, ceilings should drop to MVFR at
all terminals but IFR is possible for a couple hours at MSS, SLK and
BTV. On and off showers will continue throughout most of the day and
a couple of them may be heavy enough to lower visibilities to MVFR.
There is a low risk of lightning from any of these showers but it
cannot be completely ruled out in one or two of them. The vast
majority of showers will not contain lightning though. LLWS may
develop later in the day tomorrow.

Outlook...

Tuesday: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Chance SHRA,
Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday: VFR. Likely SHRA, Slight chance TSRA.
Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Chance
SHRA, Chance TSRA.
Thursday: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Slight chance
SHRA.
Thursday Night: VFR. NO SIG WX.
Friday: VFR. NO SIG WX.

&&

.BTV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VT...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...Storm
NEAR TERM...Myskowski/Storm
SHORT TERM...Hastings
LONG TERM...Hastings
AVIATION...Myskowski