427
FXUS61 KBUF 231835
AFDBUF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
235 PM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will slide across the area through this evening
with fairly widespread showers and thunderstorms. Behind the
front, cooler and less humid air will spread across the area for
the start of the new work week, though this break will be
brief. A roller coaster in temperatures for the rest of the week
as warm weather will then return Tuesday and Wednesday before
dipping back down later in the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Potent mid-level shortwave and associated deep surface low currently
tracking across southern Ontario. Convection associated with a pre-
frontal trough exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region this
afternoon. Cold front extending from the Ohio Valley into Southern
Ontario. Cloud cover along with previous convection has helped
stabilize the airmass across western and north central New York with
the latest mesoanalysis showing surface based CAPES less than 1000
J/kg. Visible satellite showing the potential for some breaks
of sunshine ahead of the approaching cold front, but how much
destabilization will occur is in question. Would expect some
additional destabilization ahead of the front the rest of the
afternoon into the early evening overlapped with favorable shear
profiles, will keep at least some potential for robust
convection, especially east of the Genesee Valley as the cold
front moves though.

The convection will continue into the early evening hours as the
surface cold front exits east of the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Additionally, just to the north of the New York State/Canadian
border will lie a surface low. A passing shortwave trough aloft
tonight will support scattered showers to continue across western
and north central New York with the best chances lying closer to
the surface low across the North Country. In the wake of the front
tonight, cooler and less humid air will filter into the region. Low
temperatures tonight will range in the upper 50s to lower 60s.

The potent mid-level shortwave and associated surface low will pass
through the Saint Lawrence Valley Monday morning. Lingering moisture
and lift from the passing trough will keep the potential for some
showers and perhaps and isolated diurnally driven thunderstorms
in the forecast through Monday afternoon, mainly east of the
Genesee Valley. Some gusty north-northwest winds will also be
possible on Monday as boundary layer flow increases with the
passage of the trough. Otherwise, Monday will see relief from
the oppressive heat and humidity of the past week. Highs will
be a solid 10F to 15F cooler areawide with lower to mid 70s
across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
High pressure will start to build into the region Monday evening,
bringing an end to any lingering showers. The expectation is that
dry weather will persist through Tuesday as high pressure moves
across the region. A warm front approaches the region late Tuesday
afternoon and evening. We might see a shower or an isolated
thunderstorm by Tuesday night. A better chance for showers and
storms arrives by Wednesday as a cold front nears the lower Great
Lakes.

After a brief cool down, summer warmth and humidity makes a returns
Tuesday and last into Wednesday. Highs Tuesday will range from the
upper 70s to lower to mid 80s. A few degrees warmer Wednesday with
most locales found in the 80s again.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
The passage of the cold front by Wednesday night will again bring in
another much more refreshing airmass into western and north central
New York for the latter part of the work week. This should
result in dry weather Thursday and Friday with highs lower to
mid 70s Thursday, then as the airmass starts to modify with
surface high moving east of our area Friday will see high
temperatures in the upper 70s to mid 80s. Dew points in the 50s
will mean very tolerable humidity levels for late June.

Mid summer warmth and humidity along with shower/storm chances will
return as we head into the weekend as the next frontal system
approaches from the west. Depending upon the timing of the frontal
passage Saturday should be the more uncomfortable of the two weekend
days with highs well into the 80s and higher humidity.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
variable CIGS across the region this afternoon, as scattered
convection continues across the region. The stronger convection
will likely be east of western and north central New York with
low confidence of any TS at any terminal.

The passage of a cold front though this evening will taper down the
showers and storms from west to east. after the storms move through,
there will be a brief period of VFR once again before MVFR cigs move
back in as flow becomes northwesterly towards morning.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR. A chance for afternoon and evening thunderstorms
inland from the lakes.
Tuesday...Mainly VFR conditions.
Tuesday night and Wednesday...MVFR/VFR with a chance for showers and
thunderstorms.
Thursday and Friday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Strong southwest winds will maintain Small Craft Advisories into
this evening. A round of showers and thunderstorms will be possible
into early this evening as a cold front moves through bringing the
potential for locally strong winds and waves.

In the wake of the front this afternoon and evening, a shift from
southwesterly to northerly flow will support continued choppy
conditions to the lakes, bringing a round of Small Craft Advisory
conditions to Lake Ontario Monday.

High pressure builds in across both lakes Monday and lasts through
Tuesday, diminishing winds and waves.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement through Monday morning for NYZ010-019-
     085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Monday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ030.
         Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 2 PM EDT
         Monday for LOZ043>045.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EAJ/TMA
NEAR TERM...AR/EAJ/TMA
SHORT TERM...AR/TMA
LONG TERM...AR/JM/TMA
AVIATION...EAJ/TMA
MARINE...EAJ/TMA