Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
Issued by NWS Buffalo, NY
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205 FXUS61 KBUF 051436 AFDBUF Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Buffalo NY 1036 AM EDT Fri Jul 5 2024 .SYNOPSIS... A warm front will remain draped across our region today, with a few showers and thunderstorms, becoming likely this evening as additional energy aloft arrives. A weak cold front will cross the region early Saturday, resulting in afternoon temperatures a degree or two cooler, yet still moderately humid. High pressure crossing the region later Saturday and through the remainder of the weekend will promote fair weather. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... Summer`s humidity will linger across the region today as a weak warm frontal boundary reside across the region. A few showers this morning across the Finger Lakes region, with a few thunderstorms possible this afternoon as instability builds. Coverage area of convection will increase this evening as a stronger shortwave trough emerges from the Central Great Lakes. Heights falls ahead of this shortwave, coupled with the right entrance region of a 300 hPa Jet will give broad scale lift, that will likely bring showers and thunderstorms this evening to WNY, with activity drifting to eastern zones ahead of a late night arriving cold front. Winds in the lowest few KM have decreased in recent model runs, but still moderately fast flow in the mid levels will continue 0-6 km bulk shear values in the 45 to 50 knot range. Partly sunny skies this afternoon will help MUCAPE to build to several hundred to as much as 1000 J/KG that should give enough buoyancy for storms to grow upon this evening. Overnight timing is not great, but given the stronger shear a few storms could bring gusty winds as highlighted by SPC`s Marginal Risk for our region. Confidence is still low for severe storms, though the wind field aloft is great, the late evening timing and potential marginal instability may just keep storms as garden variety. Additionally, moisture advection tonight could prime the atmosphere for some heavier downpours. PWATs are not as high as recent days, generally in the 1.5 to 1.75 inch range. Highs temperatures today ranging through the 80s and lows tonight in the mid 60s to around 70F. The moist boundary layer and light wind flow could produce a little fog across the Southern Tier. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A shortwave and weak surface low will track into southern Quebec on Saturday, with an associated cold front pushing east of our area during the day. Saturday will be breezy cooler in the wake of this cold frontal passage. Outside of a few lingering chances for some showers across the eastern Lake Ontario and western Finger Lakes regions, the remainder of the region should be rain-free. High pressure centered over the Ohio Valley Saturday night will make its way into New England Sunday and Sunday night. This will bring dry weather featuring comfortable humidity levels and plenty of sunshine. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... High pressure across New England will set up a southerly return flow which will in warm and moist air into the region supporting summer- like temperatures. Highs Monday will range in the 80s. The next mid-level trough will begin to slide across the Great Lakes Monday night through Wednesday. This will bring a chance of showers and thunderstorms for Tuesday and Wednesday, with the greatest chances Tuesday afternoon and evening. Low confidence in temperatures Tuesday, with model differences in precipitation timing and 850mb temps, but in general it`s likely to be another hot day. After that, the trough will bring cooler weather for the rest of the work week. High pressure will then build across the area Thursday bringing a return to dry weather. && .AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... A weak warm frontal boundary remains draped across the region. As instability builds this afternoon, a few showers and storms will become possible, with coverage area increasing this evening as yet another convective shortwave passes through the region. Additional showers and perhaps a thunderstorm will remain through the overnight, with a cold front entering WNY late. While any storm could bring brief reductions in a downpour, there is a decent flow aloft that could translate to the surface in any stronger storm, with localized stronger wind gusts. In this moisture rich boundary layer patches of fog will remain possible tonight, especially for the Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario. Outlook... Saturday...Mainly VFR with decreasing chances for showers. Sunday and Monday...VFR. Tuesday...Restrictions possible with showers and thunderstorms likely. && .MARINE... With weak surface high pressure nearby, winds will remain light on the Lakes today with minimal wave action. A cold front will cross the eastern Great Lakes late tonight and tomorrow, with a southwest wind freshening behind the front. With southwest winds to 20 knots a small craft advisory may be needed for Lake Erie. High pressure will again build over the Lakes the later half of the weekend and into the start of next week. This feature will bring light winds and waves to the Lakes. The pressure gradient will be light enough on both Sunday and Monday to allow for some local lake breezes to form though. && .BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NY...None. MARINE...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...Thomas NEAR TERM...Thomas/TMA SHORT TERM...Apffel/EAJ LONG TERM...Apffel/EAJ AVIATION...Thomas/TMA MARINE...Thomas