Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
Issued by NWS Billings, MT
370 FXUS65 KBYZ 272325 AFDBYZ Area Forecast Discussion...Updated National Weather Service Billings MT 525 PM MDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .UPDATE... Custer and Sheridan county Wyoming have been removed from the Severe Thunderstorm Watch. Overall convective strength has been on a decrease across the remaining watch area. Westerly winds have filled in over these areas removing the influx of deeper moisture and turning shear to the straight line variety. Don`t anticipate much organized strengthening over the next few hours as this line of storms moves out of the area, but isolated storm interactions could still produce a severe storm or two. Straight line winds will be the main threat here on out, with gusts 50 to 65 mph likely in the remaining watch area. Chambers && .DISCUSSION... Today through Friday night... Strong to severe thunderstorms are likely today as the environment continues to become more favorable for storm development. The early morning cloud cover cleared and destabilization is well under way with adequate bulk shear and upper level support in place. To the west, storms are already initiating and moving into Wheatland, Sweet Grass, and Park Counties. Additional storms are forecast to develop mainly north and west of Billings during the early afternoon today ahead of the front. This activity will move east through the afternoon and early evening today, with the strongest storms expected to exit eastern Montana between 6 and 8pm this evening. The main threats remain large hail and damaging winds. Secondary threats include brief heavy rains, frequent lightning, and the possibility of an isolated tornado (chances for this remain low across our area). The best chance for seeing any of these threats remains generally north and east of Billings, especially along the MT/Dakotas state line. Friday will be a cooler day behind the front with high temperatures remaining in the 60s and 70s. Breezy conditions will develop across the area with 25 to 45 mph northwesterly wind gusts common, strongest over the higher hills and along the western foothills. Probabilities for wind gusts over 50 mph along the western foothills remains low. Cyclonic flow will also keep low chances of precipitation across portions of the area (10-50% chances mainly north of Billings). Arends Saturday through Thursday... Ridging builds back over the region for the weekend bringing mainly dry conditions for Saturday and most of Sunday. Highs look to range from the 70s on Saturday to the 80s to 90s on Sunday, highest over southeastern areas. Ensembles remain in good agreement with another upper trough moving into the region by late in the day Sunday, bringing shower and thunderstorm chances through Monday (30-80% chance, highest over west and central areas). Modest CAPE and deep layer shear as well as a good moisture fetch over the area Sunday afternoon and evening could produce strong to severe thunderstorms. Cyclonic flow lingering over the area on Tuesday will bring a low chance (20%) for showers and thunderstorms. Uncertainty remains in the upper level pattern as we head towards the middle of next week. Temperatures are forecast to range from the 70s to 80s for Monday through Thursday. Arthur/STP && .AVIATION... A line of showers and thunderstorms will progress E, reaching KBIL to KSHR between 19Z and 21Z. Scattered thunderstorms will also develop ahead of this line, affecting KMLS between 21Z today to 00Z Friday. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will affect the entire area through 00Z, then will decrease from W to E through 06Z. Conditions in the storms will range from MVFR to IFR, with locally lower conditions...especially E of KBIL. Large hail up to 2 inches in diameter, along with wind gusts in excess of 50 to 60 kt are possible with storms over the TAF sites with the lowest chances of these conditions over KSHR. VFR will return to the area late tonight and continue through Fri. morning. NW winds will gust 20-35 kt behind a cold front that will pass through the TAF sites through 00Z Friday. Winds will diminish this evening, then become gusty again around 15Z Friday with gusts of 25 to 35 kt. Stronger wind gusts of 30 to 40 kt are expected Fri. afternoon. Areas of mountain obscuration are expected through this evening. Arthur && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMP/POPS... Tdy Fri Sat Sun Mon Tue Wed ------------------------------------------------------- BIL 087 051/073 047/077 053/088 059/080 055/080 055/084 3/T 21/N 00/U 01/B 57/T 32/W 12/T LVM 080 043/070 041/078 050/087 052/076 046/077 047/081 1/N 11/N 00/U 14/T 77/T 43/T 12/T HDN 091 051/075 045/079 053/092 058/082 054/082 052/085 2/T 21/N 00/U 01/U 57/T 42/W 11/U MLS 089 054/073 049/073 056/092 061/083 058/081 055/085 2/T 22/W 10/B 11/U 65/T 32/W 12/T 4BQ 090 055/078 049/075 056/096 061/083 057/081 055/086 4/T 30/N 00/U 11/U 35/T 32/W 11/U BHK 087 052/075 045/070 051/084 058/082 054/080 052/083 5/T 52/W 10/B 11/N 54/T 32/T 11/U SHR 091 050/075 042/079 052/096 056/080 050/080 050/084 3/T 21/N 00/U 01/U 26/T 42/T 11/U && .BYZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MT...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 473 in effect until 8 PM MDT this evening FOR ZONES 33-36-37. WY...None. && $$ weather.gov/billings