296
FXUS62 KCAE 180631
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
231 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure, drier conditions, and near normal temperatures are
expected through Thursday. Unsettled conditions are possible by late
in the week into the weekend as moisture moves in from the Atlantic.
Well above normal temperatures are expected by Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Skies are clear to mostly clear across the CWA tonight with
scattered high-level clouds passing through from the north and west.
In addition, a few low clouds have developed, mainly over the
western Midlands and CSRA moving from east to west. Winds will be
light and easterly with temperatures falling into the mid-60s to
lower 70s.

Strong upper ridging remains firmly in control of our weather today
though the ridge is expected to weaken over the Southeastern US
tonight. Ridging will combine with surface high pressure centered
southeast of Nova Scotia to provide a dry day across the Midlands
and CSRA. PWATs are much lower than this time yesterday, ranging
from 1 to 1.25 inches, and will continue to decrease as the day goes
on. A tight pressure gradient will set up over the FA and easterly
winds could be gusty at times. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny
under a mix of cirriform clouds and a few cumulus. Daytime
temperatures will be around normal values for mid-June with highs
around 90 degrees. Any lingering cumulus dissipate this evening but
guidance suggests the high-level clouds will remain. Additional low
clouds move creep in from the east late tonight as PWATs begin to
recover. Lows tonight will be in the mid-60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
High pressure remains in control for the middle of the week under
broad ridging aloft. Easterly flow will persist through much of the
column, but deep moisture will be limited. GFS ensemble mean PW are
forecast around 50%-75% of normal for mid-June. With strong
subsidence and no significant weather features impacting the area,
expect dry conditions will continue. Temperatures are forecast to be
2-4 degrees F below normal through this period as well.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Surface high will slowly begin to move offshore Friday as the upper
ridge starts to flatten out. Deterministic and ensemble models
solutions indicate an inverted trough will move westward under the
ridge, bringing moisture back into the Carolinas from the Atlantic.
This return will be reinforced by lower level flow turning more
southwesterly, bringing additional moisture in from the GoMex. After
starting Friday on the drier side with PW around 1.15", values will
increase to around normal, around 1.4"-1.5" by Sunday and Monday.
The NHC maintains low probabilities of tropical cyclone formation
with this disturbance, currently only 20% through the next 7 days.
The 18/00z GFS takes this low up the east coast while the EC is a
bit more diffuse and pessimistic regarding development, but it still
bears watching. Nevertheless, it appears the better moisture will
lead to increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms Friday
through Monday. Precip will be primarily diurnally driven, spreading
a bit further west into the CWA from the coastline each day. Other
than that, no notable disturbances of note in the current long term
period.

Temperatures are expected to warm back up over the weekend to above
normal levels with highs in the mid 90s. We`ll keep an eye on the
potential Heat Risk for this time frame as it gets closer.
Additionally, lows will likely remain above 70 degrees in many
locations Saturday night into early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Skies are clear to mostly clear across the CWA tonight with
scattered high-level clouds passing over the terminals from the
north and west. Winds will be light and easterly. Strong upper
ridging will combine with surface high pressure centered southeast
of Nova Scotia to provide a dry day across the Midlands and CSRA. A
tight pressure gradient will set up over the region and easterly
winds could be gusty at times this afternoon. VFR conditions are
expected to continue through the TAF period. Skies will have a mix
of scattered high-level clouds and a few cumulus. Any lingering
cumulus dissipate this evening as winds gradually diminish but
guidance suggests the high-level clouds will remain.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Moisture and chances of showers and
thunderstorms and associated restrictions return Friday and
Saturday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SC...None.
GA...None.

&&

$$