Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Issued by NWS Caribou, ME
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
287 FXUS61 KCAR 281741 AFDCAR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Caribou ME 141 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure builds today, then slowly exits to the east through Saturday. A warm front lifts to the north Saturday night, followed by a cold front crossing the region from Sunday into Sunday night. High pressure then builds through Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 145 pm update... NW flow continues on the ern side of building sfc high with winds gusting upwards of 20mph. Had isolated showers develop over nern zones with a report of small hail near Westfield. Am not surprised given low frzg levels but thinking that showers should be on the decrease over the next hour or two. Have made very few chgs to ongoing fcst. Previous discussion... The cold upper trough currently over the area will move eastward this morning. Ridging at the surface and aloft will build today and tonight. The upper trough has left cool 850mb temps around 3 to 5C this morning. That will keep Friday high temps generally near 70F thanks to a deep mixed layer. The warm spot today will be close to the coast due to the offshore flow. Afternoon readings near the coast may reach the low to mid 70s. The upper trough also leaves a good deal of low level moisture in its wake. That will produce a lot of cumulus across northern and eastern zones this morning. There might be enough instability to generate a few light showers by late morning in northern zones. These clouds will tend to mix out in the afternoon as drier air advects into the area. The northwesterly flow this morning will feature some wind gusts reaching up to 20 mph, but the trend will be for decreasing winds this afternoon as the ridge builds. For tonight, high clouds in advance of a frontal system in the Great Lakes region will reach the forecast area and tend to thicken and lower throughout the night. A shallow radiation inversion will form with light winds and low temps will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... A low pressure system centered over the Great Lakes will approach from the west on Saturday. The associated warm front will stretch well to the north, putting the region in S flow that will gradually increase throughout the day. Models are in good agreement with the rain showers entering into the region from the west by the afternoon and spreading eastward into the night. By Saturday night, QPF guidance shows the bulk of the rainfall should be during this time. Moderate to heavy localized rainfall is possible during the night. In addition, patchy fog is expected across the region. By Sunday, the cold front should begin to move into the western border by the morning and progress throughout the day. This front is expected to move through the region quickly with the models in better agreement with the placement of the front. The concern for the afternoon will be the development of strong to possibly severe thunderstorms. Models are still unsure on the amount of CAPE, but there seems to be a consistent target of >1000 J/kg across the south with the sagging of the front. Nevertheless, the strong bulk shear across the region and steepening lapse rate along the front give confidence in possible strong thunderstorms across the entire region. By Sunday night, the front exits over the waters, switching winds from the W and decreasing rain showers. With the advancement of the high pressure after midnight, skies should begin to clear. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... The surface high pressure is expected to remain in the area through the beginning of next week, making for an inactive pattern. Temps are expected to increase throughout the week with Friday in the mid 80s. The next system in the form of a cold front is expected by Thursday with a chance of showers to follow. Disagreement in the models gave confidence in decreasing the NBM to chance to slight chance. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR next 24 hours under high pressure. BKN mid-deck likely to move in at all terminals between 10-12z Saturday. Gusty northwest winds diminish with sunset this evening. SHORT TERM: Saturday...VFR, except for very low chance of MVFR late at far NW terminals. S winds G15-25KT possible. Saturday night-Sunday morning...IFR/LIFR in rain showers. South winds 10 to 20 kt. LLWS likely Saturday night. Sunday afternoon/evening...Becoming VFR with periods of MVFR or lower possible in any stronger thunderstorms. NW winds G15-20KT possible. Late Sunday night-Tuesday...VFR. NNW winds around 5 kts. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: No significant weather is expected. Longer period south swell will continue to diminish. Northwest winds today will gust up to 20 kt, but no advisories are anticipated. Winds shift back to southwest Friday night. SHORT TERM: SCA conditions are then probable on Saturday, then likely Saturday night and Sunday on all waters. SCA conditions could linger into Sunday night. Sub-SCA conditions are then forecast Monday- Tuesday. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for MEZ029- 030. MARINE...None. && $$ Near Term...Buster/MCW Short Term...LaFlash Long Term...LaFlash Aviation...Buster/MCW/LaFlash Marine...Buster/MCW/LaFlash