869
FXUS62 KCHS 281648
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
1248 PM EDT Fri Jun 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak front will linger near the area today. Atlantic high
pressure will return over the weekend, while a trough of low
pressure resides inland. A cold front is expected to impact the
area early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
This Afternoon: Aloft a weak, elongated, positively tilted
shortwave trough will be positioned over the southeast
coastline. At the surface a stationary front will linger in the
vicinity of the forecast area, slightly inland from Charleston
County. With slight forcing for ascent from the lingering
stationary front and some vorticity aloft, showers and some
thunderstorms have already begun to spur across southeast GA.
As the afternoon progresses greater coverage is anticipated,
however the bulk of the activity will likely remain across far
southern SC and southeastern GA where according to SPC
Mesoanalysis, a pool of 1500 J/kg of ML CAPE resides. This
morning`s RAOB sounding from KCHS showed an impressive cap,
which according to mesoanalysis is still present with some
lingering CIN across the Charleston Tri-County.

Heat concerns: With abundant cloud cover and eventual precip,
afternoon high temperatures will run a little "cooler" with
highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s (88-94). This gives heat
index values largely under 105F. No heat related headline
planned for today.

Tonight: Diurnal convection will run its course through the
evening hours with quiet weather overnight. Some patchy fog will
again be possible. Lows dip into the lower to middle
70s...warmer along the coast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
High pressure will persist offshore Saturday and Sunday, while a
trough of low pressure resides inland. A cold front will approach
later Sunday, but it should stay well to the west through the
daytime. Ridging generally prevails aloft although the forecast area
will become positioned more on the eastern periphery as larger scale
trough amplifies to the north. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to fire off each day, generated by
daytime heating and the sea breeze and then also from any activity
that develops upstream and moves in from the west. Organized severe
weather is not expected, but a few stronger storms with gusty winds
are possible as well as locally heavy rainfall.

Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue. Elevated dew
points will combine with highs in the low to mid 90s to produce heat
indices approaching or exceeding local Heat Advisory criteria of
108F in spots. At this point, Sunday appears to have a better
potential and coverage for headline issuance. It is worth noting
that afternoon convection could disrupt temperature trends. Not much
relief overnight with lows largely staying in the mid to upper 70s.

A cold front is expected to shift into the area on Monday. It looks
to be a fairly active day with the boundary providing an added focus
for convective development. Temperatures will be cooler than
previous days but still peaking in the upper 80s to lower 90s,
warmest near the Altamaha.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A cold front will likely be lingering nearby into Tuesday before
eventually washing out. The surface pattern will then largely
feature high pressure offshore and troughing well inland for mid to
late week. Aloft, ridging will build over the Southeast. This should
act to limit convection, but isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will still be possible mainly during peak heating.
Will need to monitor the potential for heat concerns again late
week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
KCHS: Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are
anticipated in the vicinity of the terminal this afternoon.
Confidence in direct impacts to the terminal remain low, so have
only included vicinity showers in the 18Z TAF.

KJZI: Current trends suggest that showers and thunderstorms will
likely remain inland of the terminal this afternoon. Therefore,
no mention of thunder or precipitation has been included in the
18Z TAF.

KSAV: Showers and thunderstorms are already forming across
southeast GA to start the 18Z TAF period. Brief flight
restrictions are possible through roughly 00Z tonight.

Extended Aviation Outlook: Prevailing VFR. Brief flight
restrictions are possible in showers and thunderstorms, mainly
in the afternoon and evenings.

&&

.MARINE...
South to southwest flow will remain dominant across the coastal
waters through tonight. Seas will run 3 feet or less.

Saturday through Wednesday: Southerly flow will persist through
early next week as high pressure remains over the western Atlantic.
Speeds remain 15 knots or less with seas 2 to 4, so no marine
headlines are expected. A cold front will drop into the waters
Monday night into Tuesday, with winds backing more to the
northeast/east.

Rip Currents: A lingering 2 ft, 9 second swell coupled with some
astronomical influences and typical sea breeze enhancements along
the beaches support a moderate risk for rip currents for all beaches
today and Saturday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
The South Carolina forestry commission reported low fuel moistures
across portions of the area on Thursday. However, rainfall on
Thursday and the potential for rainfall over the next few days
will help to alleviate some of the low fuel moisture values.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...Adam/CPM
SHORT TERM...ETM
LONG TERM...ETM
AVIATION...CPM/ETM
MARINE...Adam/ETM