465
FXUS62 KCHS 291730
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
130 PM EDT Wed May 29 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build in from the west mid to late week,
passing overhead and then offshore over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Broad, cyclonic flow aloft associated with a longwave trough
across the eastern CONUS is keeping downslope trajectories in
the lee of the Southern Appalachians in place. Highs are still
on track to peak in the upper 80s to lower 90s, except along the
immediate coast where a weak sea breeze will remain pinned
along or even just slightly offshore of the beaches. It`ll
remain dry with fair weather cumulus.

Tonight. Any lingering high-based cumulus will dissipate after
sunset with the loss of insolation. The boundary layer looks
to decouple by mid-evening resulting in calm/light surface
winds even as a secondary, dry cold front crosses the area.
These winds coupled with mostly clear skies and low dewpoints
will support strong radiational cooling. The colder side of the
29/00z guidance was utilized to construct overnight lows with
additional modifications made to support known mesoscale
influences. Lows will range from 58-62 inland with lower 70s at
the beaches and Downtown Charleston. Water temperatures over
the Atlantic, rivers and other inland waterways are running in
the upper 70s/lower 80s. The resulting specific heat influences
from these warm water conditions will result in large thermal
gradients over short distances near bodies of water.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Mid level trough persists over the eastern U.S. until a stronger
shortwave dives across the mid-Atlantic states Thursday night
into Friday and the trough axis exits off the coast. This will
allow ridging to build over the region for Saturday. The surface
pattern largely features high pressure which will initially be
centered to the northwest before it drifts east and eventually
offshore. Relatively dry air mass and lack of any notable
forcing mechanisms will maintain a mostly rain-free forecast.
The exception being on Friday where a few showers/thunderstorms
could impact the coastal southeast Georgia zones, but even this
potential seems limited.

It will be a pleasant few days with highs mainly in the mid 80s
and plenty of sun. Low temperatures will span the 60s, with
even some upper 50s across far interior areas Friday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Surface high pressure shifts offshore for the first half of
next week. Mid level ridging also transitions offshore and
weakens as a series of weak disturbances pass through. Still no
notable day for precip, but should see a return to more
seasonable diurnal rain chances. Temperatures are forecast to be
within a few degrees of normal through the period.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z TAFs: VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Rest of Today: Expect SW winds 10 kt or less. A weak sea breeze
will remain along or just offshore of the beaches. Seas will
average 1-2 ft.

Tonight: Winds will begin to veer west and eventually north to
northwest as a weak cold front pushes offshore. Winds will
still hold below 15 kt, but will surge a bit after midnight.
Seas 1-2 ft will build to 2-3 ft late.

Thursday through Monday: No marine concerns through early next
week. High pressure initially centered to the northwest will
drift east and eventually offshore over the weekend. Wind speeds
average 15 knots or less. Seas 1-3 feet early build to the 2-4
range over the weekend and into early next week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...