Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
Issued by NWS Corpus Christi, TX
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853 FXUS64 KCRP 141717 AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1217 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Key Messages: - Moderate to major risk of heat related impacts across the northern Brush Country, and minor to moderate across the remainder of South Texas, Today. - Sunday, Minor to moderate risk of heat related impacts across South Texas. - Low (20-30%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday. Today, The 500 mb ridge that has been bringing the return to the hot weather of the summer, the last day or two, continues to be blocked by the rex block made up of the ridge in the Lower Great Lakes and 500 mb low, which are the remnants of Francine. So the main concern is the heat as the temperatures range from around 90 near the coast to at or just above 100 around Cotulla and LaSalle county. Minimum relative humidity levels will remain around 40% in the Rio Grande Plains to near 80% at the Coastal Bend. The best heat indices would then end up in the inland portions of Kleberg and Nueces counties with 105-110 heat index values expected. Tonight, clouds begin to move into the region as moisture moves in from the west over the mountains, and also from the southeast, along the Rio Grande Valley toward the sfc lying along the leeside of the Rocky Mountains and into West Texas. For Sunday, the models have been all over the place with how the thunderstorms would evolve. Over the last few nights, the models have been back and forth with what to do about about tropical storm Ileana in the Pacific. A couple of nights ago the GFS explicitly pulled the energy east over the mountains and into South Texas. Last night, it looked like it would take the energy north, but pull the moisture east. While most of the models have been showing that Ileana moves north dissipates, and some of the moisture moves east- southeast, and mainly in to Deep South Texas. So tonight, the GFS and the ECMWF have brought the two solutions together. Most of the energy moves north into Arizona, but a vort max at 500 mb seems to make it into the Rio Grande Plains of Mexico, with most of the moisture of Ileana moving over the mountains into Mexico. So some of the remnants of Ileana meet up with the moisture in the Rio Grande Plains which seems to be drawn north by a sfc trough in the lee of the Rocky Mountains and West Texas. The sfc trough initiates the convection in the Rio Grande Valley Sunday morning, and spreads them east toward the southern Coastal Bend (Kleberg and Nueces Counties)with isolated to scattered (15-35% chance) showers and thunderstorms in southern Brush Country. The models are all pretty much on board with the rain heading southeast into Deep South Texas in the afternoon. Thought the NBM was a little underdone, so blended the 00z ARW/GFS/ECMWF to boost the western and southern pops a bit. So the expectation is for showers/thunderstorms to fire off in Mexico and travel down the rio Grande Plains and out of our area. Temperatures look to remain into the lower to mid 90s from the cloud cover and the bit of rain that falls over the southern Brush Country. Heat index values are expected to remain between 100-105. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through next Friday) Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Key Messages: - Low to medium (20-35%) chance of showers and thunderstorms Sunday night into Monday. - Moderate to Major risk of heat related impacts across the Brush Country, and Minor to Moderate across the remainder of South Texas through the end of the work week. Low to medium rain/storm chances start off the Extended period owing to the combination of moisture advection from what it currently is Tropical Storm Ileana over the Baja Peninsula and associated mid- level energy. Although the highest precip chances can be expected across western zones Sunday night into Monday, an approaching weak frontal boundary from the northeast may bring some activity to the Crossroads area in the evening hours of Sunday. PWATs will climb to around 2.0-2.4 inches during the aforementioned timeframe, remaining at around 1.5-1.8 inches through the remainder of the work week. However, by Tuesday high pressure is expected to settle back over the region with drier air filtering in at the mid-levels, confining moisture to the lower layers. A few showers will still be possible through the end of the week (mainly along the seabreeze), but PoPs will stay below 25%. Temperatures are forecast to be on the warm side through the period, with highs generally in the mid 80s to around 100 all week. With such high moisture expected over the area along with the warmer temps, heat index values will be in the 100-109 range throughout this upcoming week. The risk for experiencing heat related illnesses will be at Moderate to Major levels over the Brush Country all week, with generally a Minor to Moderate risk elsewhere. Overnight lows will range in the 70s nightly. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 Conditions have improved to VFR across South Texas early this afternoon and will persist through majority of the period. Southeasterly winds will be rather light at 10-15 knots sustained and gusts up to 20 knots through this evening before decreasing to below 10 knots overnight. Patchy fog and MVFR ceilings over the Coastal Plains will be a concern for ALI/VCT from 10-14Z. Tropical Storm Ileana just offshore of the western coast of Mexico will eject mid-level lift support eastward towards the Rio Grande. This disturbance will allow for the low chance (30%) of showers and storms over the Rio Grande Plains overnight into Sunday. Only included a prob30 at LRD as it contains the greatest chances of receiving showers or thunderstorms but left COT out due to low confidence. && .MARINE... Issued at 319 AM CDT Sat Sep 14 2024 A weak to moderate south to southeast flow is expected today through Sunday. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible in the nearshore waters near Baffin Bay, Sunday as a disturbance moves into Deep South Texas. Weak to moderate south to southeasterly flow will persist through mid week. There is a low (10-20%) chance of showers and thunderstorms daily. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 96 77 90 76 / 0 0 20 10 Victoria 97 74 95 74 / 0 10 10 10 Laredo 101 79 93 76 / 20 30 40 20 Alice 98 76 94 74 / 0 10 20 10 Rockport 89 78 91 77 / 0 0 10 10 Cotulla 101 78 97 76 / 0 10 10 10 Kingsville 97 77 92 76 / 0 10 20 10 Navy Corpus 90 80 87 79 / 0 0 20 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JSL LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...EMF/94