Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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032 FXUS63 KDDC 220700 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot today - Hot Sunday - Continued hot through Wednesday && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 AM CDT Sat Jun 22 2024 The general gist of the forecast is hot. A prefrontal trof axis will move across the FA during the morning hours. A weak front will follow as the afternoon wears on. This front is not really a cold/cool front as there really isnt any significant temperatures advection associated with it in the lower levels of the atmosphere. The main impact of these sfc features moving through will be wind shifts. SW winds in the morning will eventually shift NW to N by afternoon and then NE by evening. The strongest winds will be associated with the trof. Speaking of, some dry air advection is likely with decreasing dewpoints during the day for much of the FA. This will help to mitigate some of the heat issues today. The highest dewpoints (mid 60s) and hottest highs (around 100F) looks like to be confined mainly to Barber county. Heat indices of 100 to 104F looks likely for the small area of concern. Otherwise, highs in the mid to upper 90s looks likely for the rest of the FA. In fact, EPS has 90% to 100% probabilities of highs > 90F today. Winds will be weaker overall Sunday morning, so this would support near normal lows with values in the upper 60s to lower 70s. Highs Sunday look hot once again with mid to upper 90s likely for the FA. Low 100s cannot be ruled out across the lower terrain of Barber county. Will have to watch heat indices Sunday as they could flirt again with headline criteria, this would mainly be for Barber county and perhaps Comanche county. Something to watch. Summer continues as we head into the next business week. A synoptic ridge will prevail Monday through Wednesday with 500 hPa heights in the 594 dm to 596 dm range. This supports continued hot highs with values in the lower 100s. The UL ridge begins to flatten Thursday and Friday as another synoptic system starts to move across the Northern Rockies. This may take highs down a few degrees, but not by much. It is Summer in Kansas, so hot highs are on par with climo. The NBM continues to output pops in the 15% to 40% probability range and will leave as is for now due to typical summertime convective uncertainty, mainly in placement. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024 VFR expected through TAF pd. LLWS via LLJ possible through the overnight. A prefrontal trof will work across the terminals during the morning with the winds becoming southwesterly. A weak front - rather a wind shift - will work in after with NW to eventually NE winds by evening. The strongest winds will be mainly through the morning hours - 10-20 kt with gusts around 25 kt. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Sugden AVIATION...Sugden