356
FXUS63 KDDC 272200
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
500 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

...Updated Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A widespread, but primarily marginal, severe threat exists on
  Thursday.

- Friday has temperatures forecasted in excess of 100F across
  our southeast zones.

- The majority of the forecast period has ensembles showing a
  MCS signal during the evenings although plenty of uncertainty
  around them still is present.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 340 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

.MESOSCALE DISCUSSION...

Isolated to Widely scattered thunderstorms are developing
along a surface trough and stationary boundary intersection over
southeast Colorado. Several CAMS show the isolated storms
entering western Kansas around 5 PM and becoming more numerous
with time through the evening hours before exiting the area
after about Midnight. These storm swill have potential for
producing severe wind gusts to 70 mph and up to quarter size
hail, as well as intense rainfall rates of one to three inches
per hour and localized flash flooding given the 95th percentile
of precipitable water and 2500-3000 SBCAPE. Favored areas for
the severe and intense rains are generally north of highway 400
through the I-70 corridor where better upper level winds and
deep shear and best (around 70%) LCL to LFC mean RH exits for
convective initiation.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

An upper-level ridge currently dominates over Kansas and will
continue through the near term. A short wave trough in the mid-
levels will help provide some dynamic support of convection
expected this afternoon. Both the NAM and the RAP show 500mb
CVA over our western zones in the afternoon and while try and
assist convection to overcome the CAP and lack of upper-level
mass transport. Regarding the CAP, recent CAM runs have
significantly decreased CIN values ahead of the forecasted
convection. As last nights MCS did not extend in coverage and
intensity, the atmosphere easily recovered and weakened the
forecasted CAP. NAMNST forecast soundings show a myriad of
severe weather ingredients including: CAPE values of 2000 J/kg,
deep layer shear of 30+ knots, low level lapse rates of 9.3
C/km, DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg, and PWATs of over 1.8 inches.

The main question regarding severe weather Thursday will be storm
mode. CAMs are in agreement that convection will initiate
discretely around 21Z, and disagree for how long. The longer
storms can remain discrete, the greater the overall severe risk
(especially the hail threat). Otherwise all risk categories are
in effect over SW Kansas including a large 2% tornado risk area.
2 inch hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threat
however. After convection congeals, the severe threat remains
present, but decreases significantly.

Friday morning after lingering precipitation exits the forecast
area, a combination of WAA and diurnal processes will quickly
warm up. With the SE corner of the forecast area expected by
ensembles to reach greater than 104F. As a result, a heat
advisory has been issues for the southeastern six counties from
noon until 8 PM CDT. Later on Friday, CAMs have continued to
show a MCS signal come out of Colorado around 23Z. However, the
CAMs` trends continue to push the MCS farther north, further
decreasing the chance for widespread precipitation potential.
Ensembles place our northern zones at over 50% chance for
accumulating precipitation, but if previous trends continue this
will also decrease.

Saturday, ensembles has a reprieve of precipitation across the
entire forecast area with no points having greater than a 25%
chance for accumulating rainfall. Sunday however, another MCS
is expected to track across our southern area although
uncertainty still remains on the exact timing and location.

The remainder of the forecast period appears to continue the MCS
abundant pattern with some signal every night. The highest
probabilities and means from the ensembles place it in northwestern
Kansas similar to the Friday signal. Wednesday`s MCS appears to be
farther south and more widespread across ensembles, but confidence
that far out is low.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024

VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside of the
influence of any showers and thunderstorms. Radar at 2145z
showed isolated thunderstorms north of GCK, but models are in
disagreement on how to evolve this activity, as the shortwave
crosses SW KS through 12z Fri. Some models such as 12z ARW and
18z NAM are quite active, suggesting convective TEMPO groups
will be needed tonight, especially at GCK/DDC. Other models are
dry, typical of weakly forced summer regimes. Opted to keep any
mention of VCTS/CB/TS out of this set of TAFs until more
evidence supporting their inclusion is obtained. Amendments will
occur if radar trends support them. Strong south winds gusting
30-35 kts currently, will decrease somewhat and back SEly, still
gusting 25-30 kts through 09z Fri. Wind direction will veer
SWly after 12z Fri.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ066-080-081-
088>090.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KJohnson
AVIATION...Turner