774
FXUS63 KDDC 012035
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
335 PM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Storms across the forecast area with convection in the west
  Monday, widespread on Tuesday, and in the north Wednesday.

- Tuesday as the best setup conducive to severe weather development
  although can not be ruled out Monday and Wednesday.

- The remainder of the forecast period will be predominantly dry with
  highs mostly in the 80/90s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Currently, an upper-level trough is moving eastward and replacing
the trough dominated regime. A surface low is also moving eastward
along the WY/CO presently. Associated with this low, cumulus has
already begun development in eastern Colorado. Convection is
expected to continue to develop, but stay sub-severe due to a
marginal environment. NAMNST forecast soundings have around 1000
J/kg of CAPE and effective shear <40 knots. The environment is not
prohibitive enough to eliminate the potential for severe weather as
storms could briefly strengthen enough to produce severe hail or
winds. The far NW forecast zones hold the best chances (up to 25%
from ensembles) to see storms and any severe weather. CAMs have
convection entering Kansas around 0Z. Into the evening, lingering
storms could (ensembles show up to 30%) impact the western half of
the forecast area with accumulating precipitation. As this boundary
passes, winds are expected to shift from the south to from the west.

On Tuesday after warming up and seeing the southeastern zones seeing
apparent temperatures >100F, a cold front will pass through in the
afternoon providing some reprieve, but more pressingly provide the
opportunity for severe weather. The far eastern zones are in a
slight risk, but there is appreciable uncertainty on exact locations
that will be impacted. Unlike Monday, the convection will have an
ample forcing mechanism and dynamical support. The NAM places the
right entrance region of the upper-level jet over much of SW
Kansas, sufficient mid-level CVA, and ML CAPE of >2500 J/kg. With
steep lapse rates and a moist column of air, the primary limiter
will be a relatively modest amount of shear (both near the surface
and aloft). The environment is favorable for large hail (2 inches)
and strong wind gusts (70 mph), and the bigger question regarding
their impacts will lie in their location. The HRW WRF-NSSL localize
the best storm potential in our eastern zones while the HRRR extends
the higher risk farther southwest. Anywhere storms can initiate,
they are capable of producing severe weather and are worth
monitoring. After the frontal passage, yet another dramatic wind
shift is expected as winds will be coming out of the northeast.

Wednesday night will offer another chance for precipitation as
ensembles have the northern zones with up to a 50% chance of
accumulation. Despite the entire forecast area having a chance
(25%+) of precipitation, only the northern zones have a slight risk
for severe weather. However, trends in ensembles have subtly been
pushing the precipitation forecast farther south; as a result, the
risk could continue to expand southward over the coming days.

After Wednesday night, Independence day and the remainder of the
forecast period is expected to be primarily dry with a largely zonal
flow pattern. The LREF has the entire forecast area devoid
precipitation accumulations above 0.05 through the forecast period.
Ensembles have max temperatures during this dry period predominantly
in the 80s and 90s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1117 AM CDT Mon Jul 1 2024

VFR conditions will prevail for all terminals through the TAF
period. Winds will primarily be from the south until a cold front
moves through SW Kansas after 0z. Due to the frontal passage,
thunderstorms and a wind shift is expected. Ensembles have both GCK
and HYS chance of thunder at 20% so VCTS was included in the TAFs
although exact coverage still holds some uncertainty. Additionally,
some LLWS is expected at the DDC terminal around 5z. The winds will
shift from the south to from the north due to the front passage
through and beyond the TAF period.

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...KBJ
AVIATION...KBJ