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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS
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327 FXUS63 KDDC 280106 AFDDDC Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Dodge City KS 806 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - A widespread, but primarily marginal, severe threat exists on Thursday. - Friday has temperatures forecasted in excess of 100F across our southeast zones. - The majority of the forecast period has ensembles showing a MCS signal during the evenings although plenty of uncertainty around them still is present. && .UPDATE... Issued at 805 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 Radar and infrared satellite imagery at 8 pm outlined a marginally severe MCS (mesoscale convective system) southwest of DDC. As of 8 pm, peak wind reports have been below severe limits (roughly 55 mph), along with frequent dangerous lightning, and very heavy rainfall. Clouds tops remain consistently cold near -80C, with a top of -84C south of Hugoton as of this writing. MCS maintenance parameters are marginal at best ahead of this complex, but with plenty of moisture and a low level jet in place, the MCS is expected to maintain its integrity as it tracks along the KS/OK border over the next few hours, especially immediately adjacent to Oklahoma. Marginally severe wind gusts to near 60 mph are the primary risk. Increased pops to the likely/definite category over the next few hours to accomodate this complex. Elevated south winds and convective debris will work against radiational cooling through Friday morning, keeping most locations in the 70s. Winds will trend SWly around sunrise, and the additional downslope component and several degrees of warming at 850 mb will push temperatures to near 100 Friday afternoon. Pressure gradients and winds will collapse by afternoon, and the light winds will add to the impacts of dangerous heat indices across southeast zones Friday afternoon. Heat advisory remains in place, with the heat index approaching 110 degrees across/near Barber county by 5 pm. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 251 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 An upper-level ridge currently dominates over Kansas and will continue through the near term. A short wave trough in the mid- levels will help provide some dynamic support of convection expected this afternoon. Both the NAM and the RAP show 500mb CVA over our western zones in the afternoon and while try and assist convection to overcome the CAP and lack of upper-level mass transport. Regarding the CAP, recent CAM runs have significantly decreased CIN values ahead of the forecasted convection. As last nights MCS did not extend in coverage and intensity, the atmosphere easily recovered and weakened the forecasted CAP. NAMNST forecast soundings show a myriad of severe weather ingredients including: CAPE values of 2000 J/kg, deep layer shear of 30+ knots, low level lapse rates of 9.3 C/km, DCAPE of over 1000 J/kg, and PWATs of over 1.8 inches. The main question regarding severe weather Thursday will be storm mode. CAMs are in agreement that convection will initiate discretely around 21Z, and disagree for how long. The longer storms can remain discrete, the greater the overall severe risk (especially the hail threat). Otherwise all risk categories are in effect over SW Kansas including a large 2% tornado risk area. 2 inch hail and severe wind gusts are the primary threat however. After convection congeals, the severe threat remains present, but decreases significantly. Friday morning after lingering precipitation exits the forecast area, a combination of WAA and diurnal processes will quickly warm up. With the SE corner of the forecast area expected by ensembles to reach greater than 104F. As a result, a heat advisory has been issues for the southeastern six counties from noon until 8 PM CDT. Later on Friday, CAMs have continued to show a MCS signal come out of Colorado around 23Z. However, the CAMs` trends continue to push the MCS farther north, further decreasing the chance for widespread precipitation potential. Ensembles place our northern zones at over 50% chance for accumulating precipitation, but if previous trends continue this will also decrease. Saturday, ensembles has a reprieve of precipitation across the entire forecast area with no points having greater than a 25% chance for accumulating rainfall. Sunday however, another MCS is expected to track across our southern area although uncertainty still remains on the exact timing and location. The remainder of the forecast period appears to continue the MCS abundant pattern with some signal every night. The highest probabilities and means from the ensembles place it in northwestern Kansas similar to the Friday signal. Wednesday`s MCS appears to be farther south and more widespread across ensembles, but confidence that far out is low. && .AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 500 PM CDT Thu Jun 27 2024 VFR will continue through this TAF period, outside of the influence of any showers and thunderstorms. Radar at 2145z showed isolated thunderstorms north of GCK, but models are in disagreement on how to evolve this activity, as the shortwave crosses SW KS through 12z Fri. Some models such as 12z ARW and 18z NAM are quite active, suggesting convective TEMPO groups will be needed tonight, especially at GCK/DDC. Other models are dry, typical of weakly forced summer regimes. Opted to keep any mention of VCTS/CB/TS out of this set of TAFs until more evidence supporting their inclusion is obtained. Amendments will occur if radar trends support them. Strong south winds gusting 30-35 kts currently, will decrease somewhat and back SEly, still gusting 25-30 kts through 09z Fri. Wind direction will veer SWly after 12z Fri. && .DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Friday for KSZ066-080-081- 088>090. && $$ UPDATE...Turner DISCUSSION...KJohnson AVIATION...Turner