196
FXUS63 KDLH 301112
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
612 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain and thunderstorms are expected Monday through Tuesday.
  Locally heavy rain and isolated severe thunderstorms may be
  possible.

- Rain and thunder chances persist at times through the end of
  the week.

- The end of the week system (Independence Day evening) arrives
  just in time to put a damper on festivities. Bringing heavy
  rainfall and the possibility for severe storms to NW WI.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

High pressure today giving a super pleasant and sunny Sunday and
even a decent Monday for the most part until the late afternoon
when clouds start to stream in.

The next system arrives Monday night bringing a lot of moisture
advection on the nose of a 2.0" PWAT plume riding a 50 kt LLJ.
Could see some efficient rainfall rates with this as a warm
front lifts north. Soundings show deep moisture with a strong
inversion limiting CAPE and thus capping convective enhancement,
but WAA warm rain processes should be in full swing. Tuesday
afternoon the remnants of an EML glide overhead with dewpoints
near 70 degrees in Pine County may give a brief period of strong
to severe convection as deep layer omega is maximized around
this time. Things may still be active for a time afterward with
plenty of shower activity, but alignment of forcing is more
sporadic, so will have to wait and see how that pans out. This
system finally clears out of the region on Wednesday as drier
northwest flows temporarily fills in.

The next area of low pressure arrives Thursday evening as an
upper level trough crosses overhead. This will generate quite a
bit of lift over the region with a decent tap into some
instability, though still sub-1000 J/kg CAPE values) over NW WI
and shear plentiful (>50 kt) there too. Looks like a good bet
for severe weather to me. Meanwhile the ingredients in northern
Minnesota are more lacking in strength and therefore it looks
like a NW WI strong to severe storm event though there may be an
Fgen component to the MN Arrowhead that still may result in
heavy QPF, just not severe storms. The timing of this system is
a tad quicker today compared to yesterday which puts a damper on
holiday festivities. This system exits the region on Saturday
with drier air briefly moving in again before another system
arrives Sunday night/Monday in this active cycle.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 611 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

VFR conditions throughout the forecast period except for some
very isolated patchy dense fog before 13Z. Winds will remain
light and variable. High pressure will be over the region today
with sunny skies expected.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Light winds until east winds strengthen in speed on Monday with
rain and thunderstorm increasing Monday evening as a wet system
crosses.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...Wolfe