153
FXUS63 KDLH 291438
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
938 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated thunderstorms this morning then a bit of a break from
  active weather as high pressure builds.

- The next round of moderate to locally heavy rainfall is
  expected Monday evening through Tuesday with scattered
  thunderstorm chances lasting into the 4th of July holiday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Isolated thunderstorms moving through the Arrowhead this morning
have largely come down in intensity. They`re feeding off of a
little pool of 1000 J/kg CAPE and fairly steep lapse rates, so
expect them to carry on with some potential to briefly
intensify though this cycling should be short-lived. There is a
really neat low level moisture feature on the Dryden radar that
I can`t recall ever seeing on such a wide scale with low level
flow being easterly with shower activity aloft moving to the
east. This does show the low-level moisture feed into the
aforementioned thunderstorms.

Onto what`s next, high pressure builds today as CAA occurs which
should cause a cool and gusty wind day with some places
struggling to get out of the 50s. Tonight, that cool air mass
may cause some localized frost in the remote areas of the
Arrowhead though fog may also help to buffer the min temps.
Should be a nice Sunday.

The next air mass change occurs on Monday afternoon with 2.0"
PWATs moving back in on a warm advection wing with a deep tap
into a LLJ that extends down into Texas with 50 kt flow. PWATs
actually climb to 2.35" over the Twin Cities which is quite the
pool of moisture to work with. Will have to watch for a flooding
threat again with the threat for heavy rain being high. The one
good thing about this system is it seems like it will be fairly
progressive.

The active pattern continues with another upper level trough
crossing Thursday into Friday. While the moisture pool is not
quite as robust at the Monday/Tuesday system, it still has PWATs
of 1.5" with a projected surface low that spins up across WI
which could lead to boundary interactions and a less progressive
pace.

Right now the 4th of July looks dry for the Twin Ports and to
the northeast for fireworks, but it maybe rainy/thunderstormy
near the Brainerd area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 623 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

IFR conditions across the eastern half of the forecast area
with thunderstorms moving across the northern half of the MN
Arrowhead this morning. Winds pick up from the northwest today
with some gusts to 20 kt. MVFR becoming predominant until 22Z
with VFR afterwards.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 934 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

Expanded Small Craft Advisories to include Chequamegon Bay and
up the North Shore to Grand Marais. Winds gusting to 25 knots
will be possible this afternoon there and elsewhere that Small
Craft Advisories were already in effect. Since the blustery
conditions are expected to just reach criteria for a Small Craft
Advisory in the newly expanded areas this morning, I set an end
time of 21Z (4 PM CST) this afternoon. Winds are expected to
gradually diminish after that.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for LSZ121-
     141>143.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for
     LSZ144>148-150.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Wolfe
AVIATION...Wolfe
MARINE...JDS