595
FXUS63 KDLH 032331
AFDDLH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Duluth MN
631 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Active pattern continues with scattered showers this afternoon and
then a better chance for widespread moderate rain Thu PM through
Friday. Best chance for rain in excess of a tenth of an inch across
southern portions of the Northland.

- Another system may bring additional chances of rain this weekend.

- High water persists across the Rainy River Basin and a Flood
  Advisory is in effect. See Hydro discussion for more details.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Northwesterly flow and CAA leading to a continuously bubbling region
of cumulus clouds and some scattered rain showers this afternoon.
Westerly winds are strong and gusty at the surface. An isolated non-
severe thunderstorm could be possible closer to the International
Border late this afternoon. Into the evening, most of these clouds
and showers should dissipate as diurnal heating wears off, leaving
only the strongest of showers.

A larger system pushes in from the south and west into Thursday,
spurred by a stout trough aloft. Rain should begin by spreading from
south to north in Minnesota Thursday morning. With daytime heating,
CAMS suggest a blossoming of scattered showers across the region in
the afternoon, with the primary area of moderate more widespread
rain pushing west to east along a warm front. The northern extent of
that heavier rain currently looks to extend from the Brainerd Lakes
to northern Pine County to Hayward and Price County, with the
heaviest rainfall accumulations mostly across the St. Croix River
Basin and along and south of Highway 2 in NW WI, where an inch or
more of rain is possible by end of day Friday. Rainfall totals have
held fairly steady, except for an upward trend in Price County,
where rain in excess of 2 inches is forecast. Rain steadily pushes
out of the area from west to east through the day Friday. No severe
storms are expected but embedded thunderstorms are likely.

A brief moment of high pressure Saturday AM before our northwesterly
flow pattern delivers along shortwave to the region. This could
bring areas of rain showers through the weekend. Overall this rain
looks light and pretty dispersed with no heavy rain expected at this
time. Temperatures remain fairly seasonable through the period in
the 60s, 70s, and low 80s.

Looking much farther ahead, CPC precipitation outlooks continue to
suggest a 30-40% chance of below normal precipitation as we work our
way into mid July, which may bring some relief for our very wet
region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 631 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

VFR conditions through the period with a few exceptions. A few
showers around INL for the next couple hours, but only ~20%
chance they will impact the terminal. There is a possibility
for some fog to develop late tonight into Thursday morning
(~50-60% chance), and MVFR visibilities will be possible with
that. Fog is expected to lift by 13z. Showers and thunderstorms
will move in from southwest to northwest Thursday afternoon
associated with a low pressure system. MVFR ceilings and
visibilities can be expected at times towards the end of the
period, especially starting at BRD/HYR. Breezy winds are
expected to diminish in the next couple hours, then becoming
light and variable through tonight. Winds gradually become east
to northeasterly Thursday afternoon with speeds and gusts
generally around 10 kt or less.

&&

.MARINE /FOR NEAR SHORE WATERS OF WESTERN LAKE SUPERIOR/...
Issued at 341 PM CDT Wed Jul 3 2024

Strong WSW winds today have stayed gusting right around 15-20 knots,
with occasional higher gusts observed. These strongest gusts are
right along shore, with buoys further in the lake showing much
calmer conditions. Winds and waves ramped up this morning but have
stayed fairly steady into the early afternoon per latest surface
station and buoy observations. Southwest winds should calm through
the evening, becoming northeasterly into Thursday. These northeast
winds are expected to be assisted by a lake breeze circulation and
increasing pressure gradient Thursday afternoon, and may become
quite gusty in the afternoon, especially at the head of the lake.
Current forecast ramped up afternoon winds to 15 knots, but hi-res
guidance shows there is a 20-40% chance of seeing winds 20-25 knots
tomorrow afternoon, particularly for the Twin Ports. Northeasterly
winds will continue into the end of the week, keeping conditions on
the bumpy side but currently below small craft condition criteria.
Some rain and embedded thunderstorms could be possible late Thursday
through the day Friday, most likely along the South Shore.

For the open water discussion, refer to the NWS Marquette Area
Forecast Discussion at weather.gov/mqt.

&&

.DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...None.
WI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for LSZ140.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Levens
AVIATION...JDS
MARINE...Levens