659
FXUS63 KDMX 030453
AFDDMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1153 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

 ...Updated for the 06z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Threat for severe and flash flooding remains through late
  afternoon into mid evening.
- Quiet but warm on Wednesday
- Chances for showers and storms returns on late Wednesday night
  into Friday. Severe threat appears limited but outdoor
  activities may be impacted from time to time.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Convection has maintained for much of the morning into early
afternoon with a recent uptick as peak heating approaches. Much of
the forecast area was overcast through late morning but the past few
hours has seen some sunshine across the south with an associated
surge in temperatures and dewpoints. MUCAPES of 2500 J/KG have
developed into southern Iowa with bulk shear values improving to
over 50kts across much of central Iowa.  Soundings are also very
moist and PWATs have increased to over 2" in the south central - a
hydro discussion follows below.  Surface flow remains modest at this
time although somewhat stronger where mixing has been more robust in
the southeast.  The severe potential remains decent this afternoon
into the early evening although lapse rates are not overly strong
which may be limiting updrafts at this point.  There is a warm front
extending near I80 which may provide some focus for additional
strengthening and may be an area for the better threat of severe
storms.  At this point, damaging wind gusts or a tornado may occur
as the system continues to organize with hail remaining an outside
threat.  The storms pass to the east this evening with drier air
arriving overnight as weak surface ridging builds toward the
Missouri River Valley in the west.

Quiet conditions are forecast into Wednesday with pleasant weather
although it will be warm with the drier airmass warming nicely by
afternoon.  Warm advection begins to increase into Wednesday evening
and the overnight ahead of the next shortwave as convection develops
across the Plains during peak heating Wednesday afternoon and rides
the nose of the low level jet across Nebraska toward southwest Iowa.
The bulk of models output suggests this clips the southern counties
into Thursday morning.  Additional convection is expected near
northwest towards north central Iowa as well associated with the
upper system passing through South Dakota.  This upper low slows to
a crawl across southern Minnesota into northern Iowa Thursday night
into Friday.  This is likley to bring a prolonged period of moderate
to locally heavy rainfall in the vicinity of northern Iowa through
this time and will need to be watched closely given the very wet
conditions that exist in this area.

Northwest upper flow then remains in place into next week with
several systems sliding into the Midwest.  Another system approaches
by the end of the weekend with another threat of moderate to heavy
rainfall, particularly from the Euro solutions which are slowly with
the progress of the system.  This continues the threat of renewed
river rises or flooding should it come to fruition.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1149 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Some occasional shower and thunderstorm chances remain in the
far southeast near KOTM with potentially a brief shower at the
site over the next few hours. As the system departs, still
expecting a few hours of ceiling and visibility reductions at
KOTM and KALO, with both MVFR and IFR conditions possible
through the morning.

After the clouds depart, the main impacts to aviation will be
brief periods of visibility reductions due to ground fog.
Confidence is low in if or when these would impact sites, so
will watch trends and try to update TAFs accordingly. Otherwise,
quiet weather day tomorrow with VFR conditions prevailing after
sunrise.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 354 PM CDT Tue Jul 2 2024

Threat of heavy rainfall and potential flash flooding continues
across central into southeast Iowa with PWATS remaining at to
slightly above 2". Morning convection helped to saturate areas
of central into southern Iowa with rainfall of 1-3" in many
locations. The potential for some training during the late
afternoon may be sufficient for localized flash flooding and the
Flood Watch remains into the evening for much of the area.

The current river forecasts, which includes 48 hrs of forecast
precipitation, do slow the fall along the West Fork Des Moines
river. Rises are forecast across most other basins including the
East Fork Des Moines, Des Moines, Winnebago, Shell Rock, Cedar
and Iowa River basins including a return to Minor Flood stage at
Mason City, Shell Rock, Cedar Falls and Waterloo, Stratford and
Des Moines at SE 6th. This may also bring additional impacts to
these areas including the Saylorville Lake storage, which is
currently forecast to reach 882 ft by the Corps of Engineers.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Dodson
HYDROLOGY...Cogil