087
FXUS63 KDTX 262247
AFDDTX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
647 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cooler and less humid air moves back into the area tonight and
  lasts through early Friday.

- Showers and strong thunderstorms return Friday night into Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...

Remaining isolated showers along cold front will dissipate/shift
southeast at the beginning of the forecast period as the front
continues south through lower MI. Northwest flow will veer to the
north in the wake of the front with some potential low level stratus
developing off of Lake Huron late tonight into early Thursday. Will
leave the going MVFR cigs in the forecast attm. Other than this
potential period of clouds, VFR conditions are anticipated into
Thursday evening.

For DTW/D21 Convection...There may be an isolated thunderstorm in
the vicinity around 00z as a cold front passes. Any activity will be
minor/brief and settling southeast steadily at the beginning of the
forecast period.

DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* Low for thunderstorms early this evening.

* Low for ceilings aob 5kft with convection around 00z this evening
  and again late tonight after cold frontal passage.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Jun 26 2024

DISCUSSION...

Arrival of the strong H5 vorticity center will result in the peak of
the 1000-500mb height falls occurring at 21Z this afternoon. Plan
view of lower tropospheric winds generally have supported weak
convergence coalescing across the entire southern portions of the
cwa, even while system relative isentropic downglide has been
occuring in the midlevels. Opaque cloud cover limited MLCAPES of
under 1000 J/kg. Flow trajectories will become increasingly
anticyclonic over the next couple of hours resulting in quieting
weather for all of the area. Forecast soundings signal dynamic
lowering subsidence down between 3.0 and 6.0 kft agl. Enough
geostrophic flow to keep the surface mixed and should see any
saturation manifesting itself as low stratus.

Southeast Michigan will be influenced Thursday and Friday by
sprawling surface high pressure due to the combination of confluence
aloft and positioning on the broad anticyclonic shear side of upper
level jet. Pattern supports and forecast soundings confirm a dry
boundary the next couple of days with strong static stability
between 5.0 and 8.0 kft agl. A pleasant couple of days with highs in
the middle to upper 70s and surface dewpoints in the 50s.

Southwesterly return flow arrives Friday night and Saturday
increasing deep column thetae. An upright portion of the warm front
is timed to push through between 12-15Z Saturday setting the stage
for warm and humid conditions Saturday afternoon and evening.
Current forecast calls for numerous showers and Thunderstorms
Saturday evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Cooler and less
humid weather is progged on Sunday.

MARINE...

Cold front departs the Great Lakes but chances for isolated showers
over Lake Huron and Lake St. Clair exist through the rest of the
afternoon. The Michigan waters of Lake Erie are currently being hit
by a heavy rain band, but that too will be out by this evening. High
pressure moves in behind and brings cool, moderate, northerly flow
over the area. High pressure moves overhead on Thursday night into
Friday morning, dropping wind speeds to 5-10 knots. Switch to
southerly flow behind the high pressure center on Friday bringing
back moderate wind speeds accompanied by gusts to 20 knots. The next
low pressure system is set to track into the area on Saturday and
bring chances for showers and storms.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MI...None.
Lake Huron...None.
Lake St Clair...None.
Michigan waters of Lake Erie...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION.....DG
DISCUSSION...CB
MARINE.......BC


You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.