670
FXUS63 KDVN 260901
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
401 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Rain ending this morning with north winds ushering in much
  less humid air

- Heavy rain with showers and thunderstorms for early Friday
  into Saturday morning, some storms possibly severe Friday PM

- Storm chances again for Monday into Tuesday


&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Showers will come to an end this morning as a cold front moves
well southeast of the area and a much less humid air mass builds
into the area from the north. Skies will become mostly sunny by
mid afternoon as temperatures reach into the lower to middle
80s. Winds will increase from the north at 10 to 20 MPH by late
morning with dew points dropping into the mid 50s to lower 60s.

Tonight, high pressure will be over the area bringing clear
skies and light winds to the area. It will be a good night to
open the windows, as overnight lows drop into the upper 50s to
low 60s.

Thursday will be a pleasant day with mostly sunny skies and
light winds. Highs will be in the upper 70s to low 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Thursday night through early Tuesday, the global models suggest
a rather strong zonal flow across the northern United States
which will keep the heat and humidity to our south. Two systems
will track across MN and WI during this period. The first one on
Friday will bring the possibility of heavy rains and severe
storms to the area once again. The second one currently expected
late Monday into Tuesday will bring rain chances along with
heat and humidity, with lower 90s for parts of the area. The SPC
has a Slight Risk, level 2 of 5, for the western 2/3 of the CWA
with a Marginal Risk, level 1 of 5, for our NW IL counties for
severe storms. At this time, hail, strong winds, and tornadoes
are all possible. It currently looks as though the focus will be
more to our southwest for Friday afternoon, with storms nearer
the cold front. Early Friday morning through midday, shower and
storms will be moving through which appear to be non-severe,
however could bring the possibility for heavy rainfall. WPC has
the entire area in a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for excessive
rainfall for Friday am into Saturday, with rainfall totals of 1
to 2 inches across the southern two thirds of the area. Another
round of storms is expected to move into the local area in the
evening and overnight timeframe, which may be severe. Both, the
severe and heavy rain potentials will be better refined in later
forecasts. The heavy rain risk has better confidence, and thus
more concern as to how it will affect the ongoing flooding
across the area. This will need to be watched closely.

Things quiet down for the weekend with pleasant temperatures as
high pressure moved through the area. Then, on the back side of
the high, return southerly flow will bring warmer and more
humid air back into the region along with rain chances, mainly
for later on Monday and into Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1230 AM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

As thunderstorms continue to push south, mainly a VFR TAF cycle
overnight into Wednesday for all sites except BRL. Will still
have to account for MVFR to passing IFR conditions at BRL and
also with variable wind surges near the storms. With a weak
frontal boundary sagging southward acrs the area and other
storm outflow boundaries, a general light and variable sfc wind
regime into mid Wed morning until north to northwest winds
increase to 8-12 KTs or so. VFR through Wednesday evening.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...14
LONG TERM...14
AVIATION...12