885
FNUS21 KWNS 061654
FWDDY1

Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1153 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024

Valid 061700Z - 071200Z

An additional isolated dry thunder area was included for northern NV
and portions of the Great Basin this afternoon/early evening.
Mid-level ascent accompanying a shortwave trough and sufficient
moisture aloft could support a few instances of dry lightning for
the aforementioned region, south of the more significant
precipitation cores and less receptive fuels found over far southern
OR and ID.

Further south into the High Plains of NM, CO, and near the Davis
Mountains in TX, the dry thunder area was extended slightly east and
south. A weak cold front and orographic ascent are expected here,
where inverted V sounding profiles and receptive fuels will be
present.

..Barnes.. 06/06/2024

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Thu Jun 06 2024/

...Synopsis...
Upper ridging is forecast to build quickly over the western and
Southwestern US today and tonight. To the east, a broad upper trough
will swing eastward over the northeastern CONUS as northwesterly
flow aloft develops over the southeastern US. Ridging will keep
winds relatively light, but a backdoor cold front over the Southwest
may support isolated thunderstorms this afternoon.

...Dry Thunder...
Beneath the upper ridge, low-level moisture will continue to move
westward into the southern Rockies supporting weak buoyancy. Very
warm temperatures during the afternoon and weak upslope flow may
support isolated thunderstorms from portions of AZ into the higher
terrain of southern/central NM. Confidence in storm coverage remains
low owing to limited forcing for ascent from the expanding upper
ridge. However, with model soundings showing well-mixed boundary
layers below the weak buoyancy, any storms that do form will likely
be dry. Area fuels are receptive to lightning ignitions, and while
confidence in storm coverage is not overly high, the potential for
ignitions appears justified to support an IsoDryT area.

Scattered thunderstorms are also possible into parts of the southern
FL peninsula this afternoon and evening. Very dry area fuels are
receptive to ignitions from lightning. Storms are expected to be
fairly efficient in producing wetting rains given PWATS over 1.5
inches, but sporadic lightning outside of the stronger cores may
still have some potential for ignitions given the state of current
fuels.

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

$$