357
ACUS01 KWNS 080542
SWODY1
SPC AC 080540

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1240 AM CDT Sat Jun 08 2024

Valid 081200Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to develop across the
central High Plains this afternoon then spread toward south-central
Kansas during the evening. Isolated severe storms may also occur
across the Ozarks vicinity.

...Central Plains...

Early this morning, water-vapor imagery depicts a notable short-wave
trough over northern UT/western WY. This feature is forecast to
advance into southeast WY/northern CO by 18z, then shift into KS
during the latter half of the period. Latest model guidance suggests
the primary synoptic boundary located over the Plains will drape
itself near the I70 corridor early, arcing from northern KS into
northeast CO. This wind shift should serve as the focus for a
corridor of severe, and the boundary should gradually sag south
toward the KS/OK border by the end of the period.

While boundary-layer heating will prove instrumental in robust
convection today, the approaching short-wave trough is expected to
encourage significant organization along with early-afternoon
initiation near the Front Range of southeast WY and northern CO.
Forecast soundings suggest thunderstorms may develop as early as
18-19z near LAR/CYS. This activity should spread/develop southeast
into eastern CO where boundary-layer heating and moist upslope flow
should encourage upscale growth. Initial storm mode should be
supercellular with strong surface-6km bulk shear and favorable
low-level turning. NAM PFC for LIC at 09/00z exhibits MLCAPE on the
order of 2500 J/kg and this should be typical across eastern CO into
portions of western KS south of the front. Thermodynamic profiles
favor hail in excess of 2 inches with early-mode supercells;
however, severe wind threat will become more common if one or more
MCSs evolve, as seem plausible given the supporting short wave.
These complexes should spread across western KS toward south-central
KS during the late evening hours.

...Ozarks Region...

Slow-moving MCS is currently spreading across northeast KS into
northern MO. This activity is forecast to advance across central MO
early in the period before spreading downstream and weakening. While
weak short-wave ridging will be noted in the wake of this
convection, if the convective outflow is appreciable, there is some
concern this boundary may drape itself across southern MO which
could serve as the focus for isolated severe storms later in the
afternoon. Forecast soundings exhibit strong buoyancy and modest
deep-layer shear. This region may need a SLGT Risk if/when it
becomes more clear a boundary will likely serve as the focus for
storm initiation.

..Darrow/Weinman.. 06/08/2024

$$