Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
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Issued by NWS
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620 ACUS01 KWNS 290550 SWODY1 SPC AC 290548 Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1248 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Valid 291200Z - 301200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER OH VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...AND LOWER GREAT LAKES... ...SUMMARY... Across parts of the Upper Ohio Valley, central Appalachians, and Lower Great Lakes, a couple tornadoes and scattered damaging winds are possible. This appears centered from mid-afternoon to early evening. ...OH Valley to the Northeast... Have maintained the level 2-SLGT risk tornado and wind probabilities as-is, with potential remaining evident for supercells embedded within clusters/line segments later today. These threats will be contingent on appreciable boundary-layer warming by peak heating, amid poor mid-level lapse rates and pervasive cloudiness/early-day convection within a low-level warm theta-e advection regime. This regime will result in very rich boundary-layer moisture spreading northeast across the entire OH Valley towards the Lower Great Lakes. Where pockets of greater insolation can occur, confined corridors of MLCAPE reaching 1500-2000 J/kg may develop. This should mostly be offset westward from greater SRH and low-level hodograph enlargement in NY/PA. But a corridor of overlap is possible, appearing centered on the eastern OH to central PA vicinity. Midday to early afternoon thunderstorm development should tend to be focused upstream of this, ahead of remnant MCVs/convective outflows. As they impinge on the warming boundary layer, potential will exist for sporadic strong to localized severe gusts, in addition to a couple tornadoes through early evening. ...Mid-MS Valley to northern OK... The trailing portion of a cold front, attendant to a shortwave trough and associated surface cyclone moving across the Upper Great Lakes to western QC vicinity, should provide a focus for isolated to widely scattered, late afternoon and evening thunderstorms. The more probable convective development should occur along the northern OK portion of the front, owing to hot temperatures south of it, but will likely be within a weakly sheared environment. Richer boundary-layer moisture should be displaced east over the Ozarks/Mid-MS Valley, where deep-layer flow will be modestly stronger, but with less confidence on convective coverage. Overall scenario remains too nebulous to warrant higher than level 1-MRGL risk for wind. ...NM/CO High Plains... Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected during the late afternoon and evening in a post-frontal upslope flow regime. Near 60 F surface dewpoints and steep mid-level lapse rates will support a confined corridor of moderate buoyancy. While mid-level flow will be weak, vertically veering wind profiles will support sufficient deep shear for transient, slow-moving supercells developing off the Sangre de Cristo Mountains. Isolated strong to marginally severe gusts and hail will be possible. ...Northern MI... Despite veered low-level winds ahead of the cold front and weak mid-level lapse rates, boundary-layer heating should yield a plume of weak buoyancy with MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg becoming common by midday to early afternoon. Pronounced mid to upper-level speed shear will support hodograph elongation. This may yield a supercell or two capable of isolated severe hail and locally strong wind gusts in the eastern U.P. to north Lower MI. ..Grams/Squitieri.. 06/29/2024 $$