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Severe Storm Outlook Narrative (AC)
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
925 ACUS03 KWNS 230731 SWODY3 SPC AC 230730 Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0230 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 Valid 251200Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF IA/NORTHERN MO INTO NORTHERN IL...SOUTHERN WI...SOUTHWEST LOWER MI...NORTHERN IN...FAR NORTHWEST OH... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes on Tuesday. ...Parts of the Midwest/Great Lakes... A Slight Risk has been introduced across parts of the Midwest and Great Lakes, where confidence is currently highest in the development of scattered strong to severe thunderstorms within a moderately to strongly unstable environment. Uncertainty remains rather high due to the potential influence of early-day convection. A mid/upper-level shortwave trough and strong surface cyclone are forecast to move across northern Ontario on Tuesday. A cold front trailing from this cyclone is expected to move across parts of the Great Lakes into the central Plains through the day and evening. A strong belt of midlevel westerly flow will move across the upper Great Lakes, with more modest flow farther south in the vicinity of the front. There is some potential for strong storms and possibly an MCS to move across parts of WI/MI into northern IL/IN during the morning, with at least an isolated severe threat. The position of the cold front during the afternoon will likely be influenced to some extent by early-day convection, though moderate low-level westerly flow will support some recovery in the wake of morning outflow. The front and any outflow boundaries are expected to become a focus for scattered thunderstorm development during the afternoon and evening. Rich low-level moisture beneath the eastward extension of the EML will support moderate to strong buoyancy (MLCAPE of 1500-3000 J/kg) along/ahead of the front. Effective shear will likely be relatively modest (generally 25-35 kt), but sufficient for some storm organization in combination with the strong buoyancy. A few stronger cells/clusters will be possible initially, with a threat of hail, strong/severe gusts, and possibly a tornado. Some upscale growth will be possible, which could result in one or more corridors of somewhat greater damaging-wind potential into the evening before the threat begins to wane late in the period. ..Dean.. 06/23/2024 $$