617
FXUS63 KEAX 301735
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1235 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Very hot and humid conditions expected to return next Tuesday.

- Multiple chances for rain during the second half of this week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

In the upper levels, there is broad ridging entering central CONUS
with westerly wind flow over the area. At the surface, there is a
frontal boundary to our south with high pressure to our northwest.
Winds are from the north which has resulted in cooler, drier air
advecting through the region. This has provided much needed relief
from the hot and humid conditions. A pleasant Sunday is expected
with high temperatures staying around the high 70s to low 80s.

Monday a mid-level shortwave tracks across the region leading to a
potential for showers and thunderstorms in the late morning to
afternoon. Through the day, the surface high pressure to our
northeast continues to move further east. This will transition our
winds to the south by the end of Monday night. Once winds shift to
the south we will begin advecting warmer, more saturated air from
the south. High temperatures for Tuesday are expected to hover
around the mid 90s. With increased moisture, dew point temperatures
are anticipated to reach the low to mid 70s. Heat indices may range
from 105-110 degrees F, which will result in the issuance of
headlines. We will continue to closely monitor conditions as the
time approaches.

In addition to very hot and humid conditions on Tuesday, a potential
for strong to severe storms exists Tuesday night going into
Wednesday. A surface low and associated frontal boundary is expected
to move through the area with showers and thunderstorms developing
along the boundary. A decent amount of shear and instability suggest
the threat of hail and strong winds. However, uncertainty still
exists being a few days away. For the remainder of the week, several
shortwaves are expected to move through the area suggesting multiple
chances for rain for the second half of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1231 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

Weakening shortwave across central KS at 18Z will shift east
resulting in increasing upper and mid level cloud cover through
the afternoon hours. Could see a few sprinkles through the
evening hours with this disturbance passing through. Increasing
warm air advection across eastern KS after 06Z tonight could
lead to shower and thunderstorm development. These storms will
lift east/northeast through the day on Monday, potentially
leading to showers and MVFR ceilings at the TAF sites Monday
morning. South east winds will increase behind the shower
activity, potentially becoming marginally gusty.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT