929
FXUS63 KEAX 262036
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
336 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms return late
  tomorrow night into Friday morning, with locally moderate to
  heavy rainfall possible.

- Strong to severe storms and locally moderate to heavy
  rainfall possible again Friday evening into Saturday morning.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

The current synoptic weather pattern is defined by a large mid
level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest and associated
ridging across the Rockies and portions of the High Plains with
troughing over much of the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, our region
is situation between these features, with north northwesterly
flow aloft. At the surface, the cold front that was the trigger
for widespread convection earlier this morning is slowly sinking
southward toward the Arkansas Ozarks, with surface high
pressure building in behind it. The end result is cooler
temperatures today, with 2 PM temperatures in the lower to mid
80s, as well as a northerly breeze. Lingering cumulus should
dissipate/move off to the southeast by later this afternoon,
with a pleasant evening and overnight period in store.

Mid level flow becomes more zonal by tomorrow as the western
ridge flattens out thanks to an approaching trough moving into
the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. High temperatures
should be similar to those of today, albeit perhaps a degree or
so cooler, with some mid to high level clouds overspreading the
region from the west in the afternoon hours. By tomorrow night,
troughing will move into the Northern High Plains with a
surface low developing near the Black Hills. Meanwhile, a subtle
secondary surface low should develop over western Kansas with a
few embedded perturbations translating within the zonal westerly
flow across Kansas into western Missouri. CAMs suggest that this
should generate a complex of showers and thunderstorms over
Kansas, moving eastward across our region late tomorrow night
into Friday morning. While SPC brings a marginal risk into far
eastern KS and western MO, severe risk appears to be pretty low.
However, locally moderate rainfall may be possible, especially
over northern MO. With heavy rain earlier this morning,
additional moderate to heavy rain could cause some flooding
concerns.

By Friday afternoon/evening, the trough should move eastward
into the Upper Midwest with a cold front approaching the region
from the northwest. Strong southerly low level flow should yield
good moisture return, with dewpoints progged to be in the lower
70s by Friday afternoon. With ML CAPE values on the order of
3000 J/kg and up to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, strong to
severe storms will be possible Friday evening into early
Saturday morning. Locally moderate rainfall will once again be
possible.

After a brief cooldown on Sunday, temperatures look to rebound
on Monday with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices
above 100 degrees forecast by Tuesday afternoon. While
widespread heavy rainfall does not seem likely, Monday and
Tuesday will feature chances for some isolated showers and
storms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024

Low clouds have settled into the TAF sites this morning, and
sub-VFR has been stubborn to improve as of midday. Expect
gradual improvement to VFR this afternoon with CIGs scattering
with time as well. VFR should then prevail through tomorrow,
although cannot rule out some localized fog near daybreak
Thursday (around a 20 percent chance; higher at STJ, where a
TEMPO VSBY restriction was added to the TAF). North winds around
10 kt with an occasional gust to 20 kt should veer to northeast
or east-northeast tonight and then to the southeast on Thursday,
with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt after sunset this evening.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024

Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of
rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling
into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the
next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching
minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week.
Please visit our local river forecast page at
water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that
forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly
affected by updated information and additional rainfall around
the region.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...BMW
AVIATION...CMS
HYDROLOGY...Pesel