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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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929 FXUS63 KEAX 262036 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 336 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Chances for widespread showers and thunderstorms return late tomorrow night into Friday morning, with locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible. - Strong to severe storms and locally moderate to heavy rainfall possible again Friday evening into Saturday morning. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 The current synoptic weather pattern is defined by a large mid level anticyclone over the Desert Southwest and associated ridging across the Rockies and portions of the High Plains with troughing over much of the eastern CONUS. Meanwhile, our region is situation between these features, with north northwesterly flow aloft. At the surface, the cold front that was the trigger for widespread convection earlier this morning is slowly sinking southward toward the Arkansas Ozarks, with surface high pressure building in behind it. The end result is cooler temperatures today, with 2 PM temperatures in the lower to mid 80s, as well as a northerly breeze. Lingering cumulus should dissipate/move off to the southeast by later this afternoon, with a pleasant evening and overnight period in store. Mid level flow becomes more zonal by tomorrow as the western ridge flattens out thanks to an approaching trough moving into the Pacific Northwest and Intermountain West. High temperatures should be similar to those of today, albeit perhaps a degree or so cooler, with some mid to high level clouds overspreading the region from the west in the afternoon hours. By tomorrow night, troughing will move into the Northern High Plains with a surface low developing near the Black Hills. Meanwhile, a subtle secondary surface low should develop over western Kansas with a few embedded perturbations translating within the zonal westerly flow across Kansas into western Missouri. CAMs suggest that this should generate a complex of showers and thunderstorms over Kansas, moving eastward across our region late tomorrow night into Friday morning. While SPC brings a marginal risk into far eastern KS and western MO, severe risk appears to be pretty low. However, locally moderate rainfall may be possible, especially over northern MO. With heavy rain earlier this morning, additional moderate to heavy rain could cause some flooding concerns. By Friday afternoon/evening, the trough should move eastward into the Upper Midwest with a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. Strong southerly low level flow should yield good moisture return, with dewpoints progged to be in the lower 70s by Friday afternoon. With ML CAPE values on the order of 3000 J/kg and up to 30 knots of 0-6 km bulk shear, strong to severe storms will be possible Friday evening into early Saturday morning. Locally moderate rainfall will once again be possible. After a brief cooldown on Sunday, temperatures look to rebound on Monday with temperatures in the mid 90s and heat indices above 100 degrees forecast by Tuesday afternoon. While widespread heavy rainfall does not seem likely, Monday and Tuesday will feature chances for some isolated showers and storms. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Jun 26 2024 Low clouds have settled into the TAF sites this morning, and sub-VFR has been stubborn to improve as of midday. Expect gradual improvement to VFR this afternoon with CIGs scattering with time as well. VFR should then prevail through tomorrow, although cannot rule out some localized fog near daybreak Thursday (around a 20 percent chance; higher at STJ, where a TEMPO VSBY restriction was added to the TAF). North winds around 10 kt with an occasional gust to 20 kt should veer to northeast or east-northeast tonight and then to the southeast on Thursday, with speeds generally 5 to 10 kt after sunset this evening. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 352 PM CDT Mon Jun 24 2024 Areas upstream of the MO River have received several inches of rainfall in recent days. Runoff from these rains is funneling into the MO River and should make its way downstream over the next several days. Forecasts anticipate some areas reaching minor to moderate flood stage towards the end of the week. Please visit our local river forecast page at water.noaa.gov/wfo/eax to view updated forecasts. Note that forecasted river stages and timing may be significantly affected by updated information and additional rainfall around the region. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...BMW AVIATION...CMS HYDROLOGY...Pesel