Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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351 FXUS63 KEAX 281930 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 230 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather conditions and near seasonal temperatures expected today and tomorrow - Chances for showers and thunderstorms return Thursday evening into the start of next week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 228 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 In the upper levels, there is troughing to our northeast over the Great Lakes Region with a northwesterly flow over our area. Just to our west there is a stout ridge slowly entering central CONUS. These features reflect well in the mid levels. At the surface, the mid/upper level troughing has produced a low to our northwest resulting in winds over our area out of the northwest. The cooler, drier air has resulted in pleasant temperatures near seasonal normals. Later today, the aforementioned mid/upper trough will begin to move southeast towards the IN/IL border which could result in a chance for evening showers and weak storms for parts of northeastern MO. However, with the ridging just to our west, quiet weather conditions are expected for our area today and tomorrow. High temperatures for today and tomorrow are expected to range from mid 70s-low 80s. Wednesday night into Thursday morning, the pattern switches to a more active one. Mid/upper level ridging will continue to move east over the area. A trough develops to the northwest of the area over the MT/Canada border extending down into the Four Corners Region. A shortwave develops out ahead of trough which could lead to showers late Thursday evening into overnight Friday. The GFS has backed off the severe potential since yesterday`s runs. Both instability and shear are lacking. We will continue to monitor this system as it develops. Friday the aforementioned trough to our west is expected to move over the area through the day. At the surface, the low approaches our area from the southwest and remains to our south. As a result, we do not get any additional warm air advection which makes it more of a challenge for our environment to destabilize. This is reflected in our weak CAPE values through the day staying under 500 J/kg and dewpoint temperatures in the mid to high 50s. Late evening/overnight showers and storms expected mainly for the southern parts of our region. Confidence is low regarding the severe weather threat with these storms, however there may a chance for isolated heavy rainfall with PWAT values exceeding an inch. If showers begin to train or last in duration, a potential for minor localized flooding will exist. Multiple chances for rounds of showers and storms persist through the start of next week with the passage of multiple shortwaves. Expect above seasonal temperatures for the start of next week into the mid week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... Issued at 1224 PM CDT Tue May 28 2024 VFR conditions prevail through the period. Mostly clear skies are expected over the terminals in the early afternoon hours with cumulus cloud decks building in throughout. Winds will be light and out of the northwest at around 05-07 knots during the late afternoon and evening hours before shifting northeasterly overnight. Latest model guidance has westerly broken to overcast cloud coverage moving over the terminals around 04-05Z, but cloud ceilings are anticipated to remain above VFR thresholds. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Collier AVIATION...Hayes