875
FXUS63 KEAX 212314
AFDEAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
614 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Hot and humid conditions expected through next week. Triple
  digit heat indices are possible Saturday through early next
  week.

- Showers and thunderstorms expected overnight Saturday into
  Sunday morning. Some storms may be strong to severe with
  damaging winds being the main threat.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 231 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

In the upper levels, there is a large ridge over southern CONUS with
zonal flow over the region. A trough resides over western CONUS with
a weak jet max rounding the base of the trough (winds up to 70
knots). In the lower levels, there is a surface high over
southeastern CONUS. A leeside low has developed to our west over
southeastern CO. As a result of the low to our west and the high to
our southeast, southerly winds have lead to modest warm and moist
air advection. This highlighted in high temperatures forecasted to
be in the 90s and dew point temperatures in the low to mid 70s. As
the high pressure stagnates in the south east, expect temperatures
to slowly increase over the next few days.

Saturday, the surface low is expected to move northeast over NE. The
associated cold front has a northeast/southwest orientation and
extends from southeast NE through the OK panhandle. A line of
showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the boundary
Saturday night. Storms will develop in NE MO and extend back into
eastern KS following the orientation of the surface front. Strong to
severe storms are possible with strong instability. Even though CAPE
values range from 2,500-3,000 J/kg, 700-500mb lapse rates stay
around 6.5 degrees (fairly stable) which may hinder hail growth.
Bulk shear values stay around 30 knots and a low level jet sets up
which could aid a wind threat. Additionally, PWAT values above an
2.0-2.5 inches suggest a potential for heavy rainfall. This may be
another concern if storms begin to train or last in duration
however, it appears that they should be progressive enough. At this
time, strong to damaging winds seem to be the main threat with large
hail a secondary threat. These showers and thunderstorms are
expected to be out the area by Sunday morning.

For the second half of the weekend expect heat indices to near 100
degrees F. A warming trend is expected for the start of next week as
heat indices are expected to exceed 100 degrees F. At this time,
heat advisories appear likely for Monday and Tuesday. Wednesday,
winds shift to the north and provide a little relief from the triple
digit heat indices.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Jun 21 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the period. 30-40 kt low
level jet overnight is expected to mix down after 15Z leading to
gusty conditions. Cumulus and isolated -scattered thunderstorms
will develop in the vicinity of a cold front working south.
Thunderstorms will work southward mainly after 00Z Saturday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MO...None.
KS...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Collier
AVIATION...BT