Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
Issued by NWS Kansas City/Pleasant Hill, MO
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014 FXUS63 KEAX 261841 AFDEAX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO 141 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Warm through the weekend, 5 to 10 degrees above normal each day. - Dry through the weekend for most. Far remnants from Helene may skirt the northern Ozark Plateau. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 140 PM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 The eastern H500 trough remains cutoff over the lower Ohio valley, with Hurricane Helene making landfall tonight along the Florida Panhandle Coast. Conditions will remain rather quiet and calm for our region as broad ridging holds over the west-southwest CONUS. Through Friday morning, Hurricane Helene will merge with the eastern trough, lifting quickly to the north across the eastern CONUS, bringing record rainfall to portions of Georgia, the Carolinas, and into Tennessee along the Appalachian Mountains. The rain shield will spread from the east coast to eastern Missouri by midday Friday, with some light precipitation chances reaching as far west as central Missouri and the northern Ozark Plateau. Trends from the HREF Ensemble keep the majority of precip over the east-southeastern quarter of Missouri. Even looking at the 75th to 90th percentiles for amounts, keeps the vast majority of western Missouri and northwestern Missouri dry. Through the weekend, temperatures will warm above normal, as the central Plains into the upper Midwest is opened to persistent southwesterly flow as brief steep ridging sets up off the southwestern CONUS to the western Great Lakes. Highs each afternoon, Saturday and Sunday will reach the lower to mid 80s. An open mid-level short wave trough will sweep along the US/CAN border Monday night into Tuesday. This will usher in more seasonable temperatures behind a dry cold frontal passage for Tuesday. This will be short lived as southerly boundary layer flow re-establishes into Wednesday under broad weak upper ridging spread across much of the country. Highs will be back in the upper 70s to lower 80s for late next week. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/... Issued at 1146 AM CDT Thu Sep 26 2024 VFR conditions are forecast to prevail through the period. Light east winds will continue through this evening, becoming more northeast overnight. Through tomorrow morning, expect increasing upper level ceilings and increased northeast winds. Introduced some MVFR BR at KSTJ Friday morning, 08Z, increasing back to VFR by 14Z. && .EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MO...None. KS...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...Kurtz AVIATION...Kurtz