142
AXPZ20 KNHC 010338
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Mon Jul 01 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 13N94W to low pressure of 1010 mb near 11N106W and
to 09N111W, where latest scatterometer data indicates that it
transitions to the ITCZ to 09N111W to 10N119W to 07N126W to
08N134W and to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 122W and
125W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the trough
between 106W and 109W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between
125W and 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient over the area is allowing for gentle to
moderate northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore
waters. Seas across these waters are 4 to 5 ft primarily in
northwest swell as see in a recent altimeter satellite pass over
these waters. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds
continue in the northern Gulf of California along with seas to 3
ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated to recently
upgraded Tropical Storm Chris over over the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico. are just inland the coast of southern Mexico. This
activity is reaching some of the coastal areas of that part of
Mexico.

For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms will
continue across the southern Mexico offshore waters through Mon.
Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient over the area will generally
maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across
the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By Mon night through
Tue, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are
forecast to affect the Baja California Norte offshore waters. A
surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure
gradient will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf
of California Tue afternoon through Wed. A broad area of low
pressure is expected to form early this week a few hundred miles
south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development
is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form
around midweek while it moves west-northwestward. This system has
a low chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance of
development in 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of
Central America, in addition to the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the entire region
due to long-period south to southwest swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the area through the week. Winds could become moderate to
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough over the Costa Rica
and Panama offshore waters Tue through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1029
mb that is located well north of the area near 34N138W. The ridge
covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of the ITCZ to
31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast winds are
present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are
elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough, except for moderate winds near a trough that
extends from 18N123W to 12N124W. Moderate to locally fresh east
to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7
ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Southerly swell with
seas to 8 ft will move through the waters south of 08N between
97W and 140W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds
will bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters
Mon night. The northerly swell will shift westward through the
week, staying north of about 27N through Fri. Seas are forecast
to peak to about 10 ft Wed through Thu between 128W and 136W.

$$
Aguirre