682
AXPZ20 KNHC 302131
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N86W to 14N95W to 08N112W. The ITCZ extends from 08N112W to
05N127W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 100W and 110W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between
112W and 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak pressure gradient is noted across the area offshore
waters. Scatterometer data confirms this is supporting light to
gentle northwest winds over most of the Mexico offshore waters.
Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4 to 5 ft in mixed
swell. Seas across the southern Mexican offshore zones range 4
to 5 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to locally moderate southerly
winds continue in the northern Gulf of California along with
seas to 3 ft.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with newly
upgraded TD Three over the Bay of Campeche is noted across the
offshore waters of southern Mexico, including the Gulf of
Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms associated with TD
Three in the Bay of Campeche will continue across the southern
Mexico offshore waters through Monday. Meanwhile, a weak
pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly
gentle breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican
offshore waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate
to fresh winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect
the Baja California Norte offshore waters. A surface trough
along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will
lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California
Tue afternoon through Wed. A broad area of low pressure is
expected to form early this week a few hundred miles south of the
coast of southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible,
and a tropical depression could form around midweek while the
system moves WNW at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low chance of
development in 48 hours and medium chance of development in 7
days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of
Central America, in addition to the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands
offshore waters. Seas range 3 to 5 ft across the entire region
within S to SW swell.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across
most of the area through the week. Winds could become moderate to
locally fresh south of the monsoon trough over the Costa Rica and
Panama offshore waters Tue through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1026
mb that is located well north of the area near 34N138W. The
ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 120W. North of the
ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
are present. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are
elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 4 to 7 ft over these
waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the
monsoon trough, except for moderate winds near a trough that
extends from 17N122W to 13N122W. Moderate to locally fresh east
to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7
ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Southerly swell with
seas to 8 ft will move across the waters S of 06N between 100W
and 135W through most of the week. Additionally, fresh winds will
bring rough seas to the west of the Baja California waters Mon
night. The northerly swell will shift westward through the week,
staying N of 27N through Fri. Seas will peak to 10 ft Wed through
Thu between 128W and 136W.

$$
AReinhart