521
AXPZ20 KNHC 291548
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico: A broad
area of low pressure (AL94) over the NW Caribbean Sea near the
eastern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula continues to produce
widespread but disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development of this low is not anticipated before it moves inland
over the Yucatan Peninsula later today. The system is then
forecast to move west-northwestward, emerging over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear
generally conducive for further development. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall is expected to continue to impact
Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador and southern and eastern Mexico
through Tue. Currently, numerous moderate to strong convection
is over the Chiapas offshore waters along with thunderstorms
likely supporting gusty winds, rough seas and low visibility.
Scattered thunderstorms and moderate convection is over the
offshore waters from Costa Rica through Guatemala. Please refer
to local weather advisories for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Mexico near 15N93W
to 08N122W. The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to beyond 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N
between 85W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from
05N to 11N and W of 132W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
southern Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is
supporting light to gentle NW winds over most of the Mexico
offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4
to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore
zones are also experiencing 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Locally
moderate NW winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas.
Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds continue in the
northern Gulf of California with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure (AL94) over the
NW Caribbean Sea is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, enhancing heavy showers and thunderstorms offshore the
Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over the
area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and moderate
combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through Mon. By
Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and moderate to rough
seas are forecast to affect the Baja California offshore waters.
A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a tighter pressure
gradient will lead to moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf
of California Tue afternoon through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
northern Central America.

Moderate southerly winds persist across Guatemala, El Salvador,
and Nicaragua offshore waters. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring
in this region within S to SW swell. Light to gentle winds
prevail across the rest of the Central America offshore waters
with seas 4 to 5 ft within S to SW swell. Scattered thunderstorms
are noted across most of the Central America offshore waters. In
the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds
prevail with seas 4 to 6 t within S swell.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure (AL94) over the
NW Caribbean Sea is forecast to move NW into southern Mexico this
weekend, and is expected to support moderate SW winds across the
offshore waters of Costa Rica into Guatemala through today. This
system will also bring showers and thunderstorms across these
areas through Sun. Afterward, gentle to moderate S to SW winds
and slight to moderate seas are forecast across all of the
offshore waters through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1023 mb high pressure center
near 35N136W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 122W.
North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle
to moderate from the northeast. Locally fresh winds are noted N
of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 130W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. E of
130W, mostly light to gentle winds prevail. A 1011 mb low
pressure is located near 16N121W with moderate winds occurring
along the low. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are occurring S
of the monsoon trough where earlier altimeter data showed rough
seas to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate E to SE
winds prevail with 4 to 6 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5-8 ft seas
E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend.
Little change is expected elsewhere through the middle of next
week.

$$
AReinhart