070
AXPZ20 KNHC 241536
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Jun 24 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 89W reaching southward from
Honduras into the eastern Pacific to near 04N. A weak low
pressure centered has formed along the wave axis where it
intersects the monsoon trough. It is moving westward at around 10
kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active
from 10N to 12N between 87W and 89W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N108W to 08N140W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from
09N to 11N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 112W and 121W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak trough is noted W of the area from 28N125W to 23N120W.
This breaks up the standard subtropical ridge pattern that is
normally in place over the region, resulting in a very weak
pressure gradient. Thus, winds are mainly light and variable
across the enter offshore waters of Mexico. Combined seas are 4
to 6 ft over open waters with components of NW and SW swell. Seas
are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds may pulse just offshore Cabo
San Lucas tonight and Tue night. Elsewhere a weak gradient over
the area will generally maintain gentle to moderate breezes and
moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through
Fri.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of El Salvador and Honduras ahead of the approaching tropical
wave. Light to gentle winds persist across the regional offshore
waters, with 4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, the rather weak pressure pattern over the
region will continue to support generally gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate wave heights through Fri.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1029 mb high pressure well
north-northeast of Hawaii dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas
are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell, highest along the monsoon
trough between 120W and 130w. Gentle to moderate winds prevail.
Little change is expected in marine conditions this week.

$$
Konarik