841
AXPZ20 KNHC 250328
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Tue Jun 25 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is along 91W reaching southward from
Guatemala into the eastern Pacific to near 05N. It is moving
westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active
from 10N to 12N between 90W and 94W.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W to 12N115W to
07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 12N
between 90W and 94W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A weak trough is noted W of the area from 30N123W to 22N132W.
This breaks up the standard subtropical ridge pattern that is
normally in place over the region, resulting in a very weak
pressure gradient. Thus, winds are mainly light and variable
across the offshore waters of Mexico, with the except of just
offshore Cabo San Lucas, where some moderate NW winds have
developed. Combined seas are 4 to 6 ft over open waters with
components of NW and SW swell. Seas are 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf
of California.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are likely to pulse just
offshore Cabo San Lucas tonight and Tue night. Elsewhere a weak
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes
and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters
through the week.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters
of Guatemala and El Salvador ahead of the tropical wave. Light
to gentle winds persist across the regional offshore waters, with
4 to 6 ft combined seas in SW swell.

For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern over the region will
continue to support generally gentle to moderate winds and slight
to moderate wave heights into mid week. Looking ahead, SW winds
will increase along with building seas off Panama and Costa Rica
as broad low pressure forms over Central America.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A broad surface ridge centered on 1022 mb high pressure 39N134W
dominates the basin west of 120W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in
mixed swell, highest along the monsoon trough between 120W and
130W. Mainly gentle winds prevail. Little change is expected in
marine conditions through mid week. Looking ahead, expect fresh
winds near the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W by Wed
associated with a weak trough.

$$
Christensen