135
AXPZ20 KNHC 300403
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0405 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): A
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sun, where conditions appear generally
conducive for further development. A tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland again early next week over
Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue
to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early
next week. Currently, numerous moderate to strong convection is
over Chiapas. Numerous strong convection is seen over Guatemala.
This system Please refer to local weather advisories for more
information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from NW Colombia, northwestward across
central Panama to northern Costa Rica and continues northwestward
to 13N92W, then westward to 13N97W, southwestward to low pressure
near 11N015W 1010 mb, and to 07N112W to 08N116W to 07N123W. The
ITCZ extends from 07N123W to 07N130W to 08N140W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south
of the trough and low between 103W and 105W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 120 nm northwest of the trough between
106W and 110W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 135W
and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
southern Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is
supporting light to gentle northwest winds over most of the
Mexico offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores
are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore
zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate northwest
winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to
locally moderate southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of
California through Mon along with seas of 3 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sun, where
conditions appear generally conducive for further development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the
area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Mexico
through early next week. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient over
the area will generally maintain mostly gentle breezes and
moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore waters through
Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh winds and
moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja California
offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja Peninsula and a
tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate to fresh
southeast winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon
through Wed.

A broad area of low pressure could form by early next week a few
hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Some
gradual development is possible during the next several days
while the system moves west-northwestward.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
northern Central America.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America
offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft with south to southwest
swell. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore
waters of Panama and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas. Scattered
thunderstorms are noted across most of the Central America
offshore waters. In the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to
moderate winds prevail with seas of 4 to 6 ft in south swell.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where
conditions appear generally conducive for further development.
Regardless of development, heavy rainfall associated with the
area of low pressure will continue to affect portions of Central
America and Mexico through early next week. Afterward, gentle to
moderate south to southwest winds and slight to moderate seas
are forecast across all of the offshore waters through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1027
mb that is located well north of the area near 34N136W. The
ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 122W. North of the
ITCZ to 31N and west of 130W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
are present except for gentle northeast winds in the far NW
part. Gentle to moderate north to northeast winds are elsewhere
north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Light
to gentle northwest to north winds are north of the monsoon
trough, except for light and variable winds from 08N to 18N
between 111W and 121W and for moderate northeast winds within
60 nm NW of a 1010 mb low that is near 16N121W. A trough extends
northwest from the low to 18N128W, and southeastward from the
low to 12N115W. No significant convection is occurring with this
feature. Isolated showers are possible from 15N to 19N between
118W and 123W. Moderate east to southeast winds continue south
of the ITCZ along with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 8 ft in southeast to south swell east of 110W south of the
monsoon trough through the rest of the weekend. Little change is
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

$$
Aguirre