652
AXPZ20 KNHC 292145
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
2205 UTC Sat Jun 29 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): A
broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the Bay of
Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where conditions appear
generally conducive for further development. A tropical
depression could form before the system moves inland again early
next week over Mexico. Interests along the Gulf coast of Mexico
should monitor the progress of this system. Regardless of
development, heavy rainfall associated with the area of low
pressure will affect portions of Central America and Mexico
through early next week. Currently, numerous moderate to strong
convection is over Chiapas. Scattered thunderstorms are also
impacting Guatemala. Please refer to local weather advisories for
more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Mexico near 15N93W
to 11N105W to 08N121W. The ITCZ extends from 08N121W to 07N130W
to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to
16N between 93W and 109W and from 05N to 11N and W of 133W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
southern Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is
supporting light to gentle NW winds over most of the Mexico
offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores are 4
to 6 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican offshore
zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate NW winds
are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas. Gentle to locally
moderate southerly winds continue in the northern Gulf of
California with seas to 3 ft.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where
conditions appear generally conducive for further development.
This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48
hours and 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of
Mexico through early next week. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore
waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja
California offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja
Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate
to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon
through Wed.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential this weekend and early next week over
northern Central America.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America
offshore waters with seas 4 to 6 ft within S to SW swell. Light
to gentle winds are noted across the offshore waters of Panama
and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas. Scattered thunderstorms are
noted across most of the Central America offshore waters. In the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail
with seas 4 to 6 t within S swell.

For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to
form over the Bay of Campeche tonight or early Sunday, where
conditions appear generally conducive for further development.
This system has a medium chance of development in the next 48
hours and 7 days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall
associated with the area of low pressure will affect portions of
Central America through early next week. Afterward, gentle to
moderate S to SW winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast
across all of the offshore waters through Wed night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends SE from a 1024 mb high pressure center
near 33N136W. The ridge covers the subtropical waters W of 122W.
North of the ITCZ to 31N and W of 120W, winds are mostly gentle
to moderate from the northeast. Fresh winds are noted N of the
ITCZ to 16N and W of 130W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. E of 130W,
mostly light to gentle winds prevail. A 1011 mb low pressure is
located near 17N121W with gentle to locally moderate winds
occurring along the low. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds
are occurring S of the monsoon trough where earlier altimeter
data showed rough seas to 8 ft. South of the ITCZ, gentle to
moderate E to SE winds prevail with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and 5-8 ft seas
E of 110W south of the monsoon trough through the weekend.
Little change is expected elsewhere through the middle of next
week.

$$
AReinhart