569
AXPZ20 KNHC 301535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sun Jun 30 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1530 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Heavy rainfall for Central America and eastern Mexico (AL94): An
area of low pressure located over the southern portion of the
Bay of Campeche is producing disorganized showers and
thunderstorms across southern Mexico and across the Chiapas
offshore waters. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
further development, and a short- lived tropical depression could
form before the system moves inland over Mexico on Monday
morning. Interests along the Gulf Coast of Mexico should monitor
the progress of this system. Regardless of development, heavy
rainfall associated with the area of low pressure will continue
to affect portions of Central America and Mexico through early
next week. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system later today. This system has a medium
chance of development in 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to
local weather advisories for more information.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
10N85W to 15N95W to 09N111W. The ITCZ extends from 09N111W to
06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 08N to 13N between 98W and 109W and from 04N to 09N between
118W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming
week over southern Mexico.

A weak pressure gradient across the area offshore waters is
supporting light to gentle northwest winds over most of the
Mexico offshore waters. Seas across the Baja Peninsula offshores
are 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Seas across the SW Mexican
offshore zones range 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Locally moderate
northwest winds are N of Punta Eugenia, and off Cabo San Lucas.
Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds continue in the
northern Gulf of California through Mon along with seas to 3 ft.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with a
broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of Campeche
extend westward to the offshore waters of southern Mexico,
including the Gulf of Tehuantepec region.

For the forecast, the scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms over the offshore waters of Mexico, including the
Gulf of Tehuantepec region are expected to change little through
the early part of the upcoming week. Otherwise, a weak pressure
gradient over the area will generally maintain mostly gentle
breezes and moderate combined seas across the Mexican offshore
waters through Mon. By Mon night through Tue, moderate to fresh
winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to affect the Baja
California offshore waters. A surface trough along the Baja
Peninsula and a tighter pressure gradient will lead to moderate
to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California Tue afternoon
through Wed. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form
early this week a few hundred miles south of the coast of
southern Mexico. Some gradual development is possible, and a
tropical depression could form around midweek while the system
moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. This system has a low
chance of development in 48 hours and medium chance of
development in 7 days.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Please see Special Features section above for information on
heavy rainfall potential through the early part of the upcoming
week over northern Central America.

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Central America
offshore waters with seas 4 to 5 ft with south to southwest
swell. Light to gentle winds are noted across the offshore
waters of Panama and Colombia with 3 to 4 ft seas. In the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate winds prevail
with seas of 4 to 5 ft in south swell.

For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms associated
with a broad area of low pressure that is over the Bay of
Campeche extend westward to the offshore waters of Guatemala.
Gentle to moderate southerly winds south of the monsoon trough
are forecast to become moderate southwest to west winds south of
Costa Rica and Panama starting late Mon night.

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

Surface ridging extends southeastward from high pressure of 1026
mb that is located well north of the area near 34N137W. The
ridge covers the subtropical waters west of 124W. North of the
ITCZ to 31N and west of 120W, moderate to fresh northeast winds
are present except for gentle northeast winds in the far NW
waters, N of 27N and W of 135W. Gentle to moderate north to
northeast winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ. Seas are 5 to 7
ft over these waters. Light to gentle northwest to north winds
are north of the monsoon trough, except for moderate winds
near a trough that extends from 17N122W to 14N122W. Moderate to
locally fresh east to southeast winds continue south of the ITCZ
along with 4 to 7 ft seas.

For the forecast, expect periods of fresh winds and seas of
5 to 7 ft in southeast to south swell between 110W and 126W
south of the monsoon through early on Mon. Little change is
expected elsewhere through the middle of next week.

$$
AReinhart