Area Forecast Discussion
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Issued by NWS
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632 FXUS64 KEPZ 300008 AFDEPZ Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 608 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Daily thunderstorm chances will continue throughout the entire period with Wednesday showing the highest probability for showers and thunderstorms. Temperatures will run near or a few degrees above normal. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 The monsoonal pattern is well established with the presence of the summertime subtropical ridge. The location of this ridge will be what drives our weather for the period, and really the remainder of the summer. Starting off, it`s centered over the DFW area, but with a ridge axis extending well to its west (and east), reaching into our CWA. This pattern has worked to bring warm temperatures aloft along with some subsidence as well as import drier air. PWats were around 1.2" on this morning`s EPZ sounding. Satellite and radar are relatively quiet as of 1PM with just a few showers over the Gila and Sacs as thermodynamics and dynamics are presently limited thanks to the high. With that said, however, an easterly push is expected to arrive this afternoon, moving east to west, which will likely aid in thunderstorm development by adding some low-level lift though isolated to maybe scattered coverage is expected. Air mass wise, moisture and temperature (or in terms of theta-e) advection will be fairly neutral, at least initially. Temperatures for Sunday will be around 5 degrees cooler in spite of the ridge continuing to nudge westward. The HRRR is showing an uptick for thunderstorm coverage for tomorrow in spite of the cooler temperatures. An easterly wave over Mexico was over Southern Chihuahua as of typing this discussion with a trailing vort max arcing toward the Rio Grande Valley of TX. The bulk of this easterly wave looks to continue into the Pacific according to the GFS, but the GFS and NAM show the trailing vort tube and moisture forced northward into the CWA, which if true, would provide subtle DPVA. As we head into Monday, the ridge will begin making a slow trek to the east while ridging strengthens off the Pacific Coast. For Monday and Tuesday, temperatures will climb some as today`s air mass retreats east while thunderstorm chances follow their usual preference toward the mountains with at least isolated coverage spreading into the lowlands. On Wednesday, the ridge moves far enough east, a weakness/trough develops over NM between the Pacific Ridge and subtropical ridge over the CONUS. Moisture will center within this weakness, giving our entire CWA its best chance for precipitation of the period. GFS shows PW values over 1.5" while the ECMWF shows dew points in the mid 50s. Heavy rain and flash flooding would be the main concern. Drier air will try and push in from the northwest beginning Thursday with models disagreeing on how far south it will go. The other important thing about NW-flow is it opens the door for disturbances to directly impact our CWA either via frontal pushes, which is hinted at for next Saturday or DPVA, which usually stems from features too subtle for models to pick-up this far in advance. All that said, thunderstorm chances will continue as we finish out the work week while temperatures hover near or just above average. Looking at NBM temperatures for KELP, the spread between the 25th and 75th percentile is as much as ten degrees by next weekend, indicating the uncertainty of how much cooler air NW flow will allow to push into Southern NM and Far W Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 557 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Thunderstorms are moving from the east to the west across the region. The threat for thunderstorms at KELP has ended and will end shortly for KLRU, but the threat for thunderstorms and strong thunderstorm winds will continue for the next few hours for KDMN and KTCS. Later the winds will slow and our ceilings will become unlimited by 10 PM. Winds will generally be light from the east tonight, but the low end east or southeast winds gusty winds will return on Sunday. Like today there will be another threat for afternoon and evening thunderstorms across the area, but the confidence right now of it impacting a certain airport is not high, so I have not mentioned the threat is the round of TAF`s. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 200 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Minimal fire concerns continue as we remain in a monsoonal pattern. Temperatures are not expected to be as hot for Sunday, which will allow for higher min RH values in the afternoon, only falling into the mid 20s. Winds will remain light. Thunderstorm development is expected again tomorrow afternoon with the HRRR showing an increase in coverage than seen the past two days. Regardless, convection will be favored in the mountains. The main concern with any storm will be gusty winds. Thunderstorm coverage and chances will decrease some for Monday and Tuesday before increasing again Wednesday. Venting will range very good to excellent for Sunday and good to very good for Monday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 82 102 81 101 / 30 30 50 10 Sierra Blanca 71 94 69 94 / 20 30 20 10 Las Cruces 76 99 74 99 / 60 30 60 20 Alamogordo 69 96 70 96 / 30 20 30 10 Cloudcroft 52 73 53 72 / 30 30 30 30 Truth or Consequences 75 95 73 94 / 60 20 60 40 Silver City 68 90 66 88 / 70 40 80 60 Deming 75 98 72 96 / 70 30 80 30 Lordsburg 73 97 71 94 / 70 40 90 50 West El Paso Metro 79 99 78 98 / 40 30 50 10 Dell City 73 98 72 98 / 10 20 20 10 Fort Hancock 77 101 74 101 / 20 30 30 10 Loma Linda 71 93 70 91 / 20 30 40 10 Fabens 79 100 76 100 / 20 30 40 10 Santa Teresa 77 97 74 96 / 40 30 60 20 White Sands HQ 77 96 76 96 / 40 20 50 20 Jornada Range 73 96 71 95 / 50 20 60 20 Hatch 73 98 71 97 / 60 20 60 30 Columbus 76 97 73 96 / 70 30 80 20 Orogrande 75 96 73 96 / 30 20 40 10 Mayhill 57 84 58 84 / 30 40 20 30 Mescalero 57 85 58 83 / 30 30 30 30 Timberon 56 82 55 82 / 20 30 30 20 Winston 63 86 61 84 / 60 30 70 70 Hillsboro 70 92 68 91 / 70 30 70 60 Spaceport 70 95 68 94 / 60 20 60 30 Lake Roberts 63 90 62 86 / 60 40 80 70 Hurley 69 93 66 91 / 70 30 80 50 Cliff 68 99 66 96 / 60 30 80 60 Mule Creek 69 93 67 89 / 60 40 80 70 Faywood 70 91 68 89 / 70 30 80 50 Animas 70 97 69 94 / 70 50 80 50 Hachita 70 96 69 95 / 80 40 80 40 Antelope Wells 69 95 68 94 / 80 70 90 50 Cloverdale 65 90 66 89 / 80 70 80 50 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for TXZ418-419-423-424. NM...Heat Advisory until 6 AM MDT Sunday for NMZ407-410-411-427>429. Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ415-416. && $$ FORECASTER...15-Brice