156
FXUS64 KEPZ 012005
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
205 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION, FIRE WEATHER...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Daily storm chances will continue with Wednesday and Saturday
anticipated to be the most active days while Thursday and Friday
see a decrease in thunderstorm chances. Temperatures will run near
or a few degrees above normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

We are in a typical monsoonal pattern this afternoon. High
pressure is centered east of Dallas, with an east-west oriented
ridge axis extending from our CWA to AL. This has directed the
richer portion of the moist plume west of the Divide with some
drier air trying to move into Hudspeth and Otero Counties. Of
note, there is a well defined swirl near Pecos, TX. It seems its
only impact to the CWA is perhaps some subsidence to eastern
areas. Either way, thunderstorm coverage is expected to increase
throughout the afternoon with highest chances west of the Rio
Grande.

Beginning Tuesday, our portion of the ridge will begin to weaken,
allowing better moisture to move into NM and Far W. TX. The HRRR
shows an uptick in thunderstorm coverage, possibly picking up on
the fact there will be height falls ahead of an approaching UL
trough axis. By Wednesday the ridge will have completely opened up
for our area with one center off the Pacific Coast and the other
centered toward the Southeast. Wednesday is expected to be our
most active day with a passing trough axis, rich moisture, and
height falls. Flash flooding would be the main concern.

For Thursday and Friday, drier air will move in from the north and
northwest, greatly limiting thunderstorm chances. Temperatures
will climb for Thursday, but a side door/ back door front will cut
temperatures back down for Friday. This front will also allow
moisture to return increasing thunderstorm chances for late Friday
and especially Saturday. Drier air filters back in via NW flow
aloft on Sunday, once again lowering storm chances.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1131 AM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

Generally VFR conditions expected for the period with SKC-FEW080
becoming FEW-SCT080, possibly BKN. ISO to SCT SHRA/TSRA is
expected again this afternoon. RA+ and gusty winds will be the
main impacts with any storm that moves over a terminal, but
outflows will likely impact sites as well. Thus, the wind forecast
is low confidence. Even outside of thunderstorm influences,
direction will be somewhat variable with speeds topping out around
10-15 knots with some higher gusts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 200 PM MDT Mon Jul 1 2024

No significant fire concerns anticipated for the period. Monsoonal
moisture continues in place with moisture anticipated to increase
for Wednesday. This will lead to at least scattered thunderstorms
with the best chances for precipitation in the mountains and west
of the Rio Grande, spreading across the entire area by Wednesday.
Min RH values will be in the 20s with recoveries into at least the
50s. Winds will be light outside of thunderstorm influences.
Venting will range good to very good for Tuesday, decreasing to
fair to good for Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                  81 103  81 101 /  20  30  50  60
Sierra Blanca            72  96  72  95 /  10  20  50  60
Las Cruces               75 101  76  98 /  20  40  40  60
Alamogordo               69  97  71  95 /  20  30  40  50
Cloudcroft               54  75  56  73 /  30  60  50  80
Truth or Consequences    72  93  72  93 /  40  70  30  50
Silver City              66  88  67  87 /  40  70  50  70
Deming                   71  98  73  97 /  30  40  50  60
Lordsburg                70  95  71  93 /  50  60  50  60
West El Paso Metro       78 101  79  98 /  20  30  60  60
Dell City                73 101  75 100 /  10  20  30  50
Fort Hancock             76 103  76 102 /  20  20  50  60
Loma Linda               72  94  73  93 /  20  30  50  70
Fabens                   78 103  77 100 /  20  30  50  60
Santa Teresa             74  99  76  96 /  20  30  60  60
White Sands HQ           76  98  79  96 /  20  40  50  70
Jornada Range            71  98  71  95 /  20  50  40  60
Hatch                    71  99  73  97 /  30  50  40  60
Columbus                 73  98  75  95 /  30  30  60  60
Orogrande                72  98  74  95 /  20  30  50  60
Mayhill                  59  85  61  84 /  20  60  40  80
Mescalero                58  85  60  84 /  30  60  40  70
Timberon                 57  84  59  83 /  20  50  40  80
Winston                  60  83  61  83 /  50  90  40  70
Hillsboro                68  92  70  90 /  40  70  50  80
Spaceport                67  95  69  93 /  30  60  40  60
Lake Roberts             62  88  62  86 /  40  80  50  70
Hurley                   66  92  66  90 /  40  60  40  60
Cliff                    66  97  67  95 /  40  60  30  50
Mule Creek               67  90  69  90 /  50  60  40  40
Faywood                  68  91  69  90 /  40  60  50  70
Animas                   68  95  71  91 /  50  60  50  60
Hachita                  68  95  70  92 /  40  50  60  60
Antelope Wells           69  94  70  90 /  50  70  70  80
Cloverdale               67  90  67  85 /  40  60  60  70

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...Flash Flood Watch until midnight MDT tonight for NMZ414>416.

&&

$$

FORECASTER...34-Brown