Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
811 FNUS74 KEPZ 292203 FWSEPZ Spot Forecast for Practice / Wildland Fire...Montana Vista Fire Rescue National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 403 PM MDT Sat Jun 29 2024 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1700 MDT on June 29. If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather Service. .DISCUSSION... East to southeast winds will continue this evening. The main threat will be isolated to scattered thunderstorms over the next 2 to 4 hours. These storms, though not directly affecting the spot location could produce strong, gusty and erratic outflow winds. Later this evening the thunderstorms chances decrease but the east winds will continue to be gusty. Decent RH recoveries tonight, then not as hot on Sunday with another chance for afternoon or evening thunderstorms. The winds on Sunday will be from the southeast and a little less than we saw today. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (40-50 percent). Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Chance of pcpn......30 percent. LAL.................4. Max temperature.....Around 103. Min humidity........18 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds around 10 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms. Mixing height.......12100 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East around 18 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (213000 knot-ft). Haines Index........3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 5 PM Sky (%).........44 Weather cov.....SCTTRD Weather type....RNSHWR Tstm cov........SCTTRD Chc of pcpn (%).30 LAL.............4 Temp............102 RH..............19 20 ft wind......E 10 20 ft wind gust.20 Mix hgt (ft)....12100 Transport wind..E 18 Haines index....3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..213 Ventrate Cat....EXNT .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Mostly clear (10-20 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms early in the evening. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1. Min temperature.....Around 79. Max humidity........56 percent. Wind (20 ft)........East winds 13 to 17 mph with gusts to around 31 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early in the evening. Mixing height.......11400 ft AGL decreasing to 700 ft AGL in the late evening and overnight. Transport winds.....East 21 to 28 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Excellent (204500 knot-ft) decreasing to poor (15300 knot-ft) in the late evening and overnight. Haines Index........2 to 4 or very low to low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 PM 8 PM 10 PM MIDNGT 2 AM 4 AM Sky (%).........13 13 10 11 11 15 Weather cov.....ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE NONE Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR NONE NONE NONE NONE Tstm cov........ISOLTD ISOLTD NONE NONE NONE NONE Chc of pcpn (%).20 20 10 0 0 10 LAL.............1 1 1 1 1 1 Temp............100 92 87 84 82 80 RH..............20 24 31 41 47 52 20 ft wind......E 13 E 13 E 16 E 17 E 17 E 15 20 ft wind gust.26 26 31 31 31 29 Mix hgt (ft)....11400 11400 1000 1000 700 700 Transport wind..E 24 E 24 SE 28 SE 28 SE 21 SE 21 Haines index....3 4 4 3 3 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..205 205 25 25 15 15 Ventrate Cat....EXNT EXNT POOR POOR POOR POOR .SUNDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny (10-20 percent). Isolated showers and thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Chance of pcpn......20 percent. LAL.................1 until 1500, then 3. Max temperature.....Around 98. Min humidity........23 percent. Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 10 to 13 mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late in the afternoon. Mixing height.......10900 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Southeast 16 to 20 mph. Smoke dispersal.....Fair (56200 knot-ft) early in the morning increasing to very good (131800 knot-ft) in the afternoon increasing to excellent (163800 knot-ft) late in the afternoon. Haines Index........2 to 3 or very low potential for large plume dominated fire growth. TIME (MDT) 6 AM 9 AM NOON 3 PM Sky (%).........7 5 17 28 Weather cov.....NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD Weather type....NONE NONE NONE RNSHWR Tstm cov........NONE NONE NONE ISOLTD Chc of pcpn (%).0 0 10 20 LAL.............1 1 1 6 Temp............79 88 94 98 RH..............56 42 32 24 20 FT wind......E 13G24 SE 12G22 SE 10G22 SE 12G23 Mix hgt (ft)....3300 3300 9200 10900 Transport wind..SE 20 SE 20 SE 16 SE 19 Haines index....2 2 2 3 Vrate kt-ft/1K..56 56 132 164 Ventrate Cat....FAIR FAIR VYGD EXNT .FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5... .MONDAY... Partly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. Highs in the mid 90s. Southeast winds around 9 mph. .TUESDAY... Partly cloudy. Isolated showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the upper 70s. Highs in the upper 90s. South winds around 7 mph. .WEDNESDAY... Mostly cloudy. Scattered showers and thunderstorms. Lows around 80. Highs in the upper 90s. South winds around 5 mph. $$ Forecaster...BRICE Requested by...Assistant Chief Etienne Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2416934.0/EPZ .DELDT 06/29/24 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL jetienne@montanavista.org