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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX
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598 FXUS64 KEWX 231817 AFDEWX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 117 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 The main focus for the short term is heat. Heat index values this afternoon and Monday afternoon are expected to rise into the 100 to 110 range due to the combination of the subtropical ridge overhead, residual surface moisture from recent rain, and moisture advection from the Gulf. The Coastal Plains and portions of the I-35 corridor are expected to be the general area for the upper end of that range. As such a Heat Advisory may be needed for a few counties Monday afternoon. The main question is how efficient afternoon mixing will be for those counties. If drier air aloft is able to mix to the surface then dew points may drop enough to keep heat index values just shy of the 108 mark needed for an advisory. Regardless if an advisory is issued or not or if you`re outside of the above mentioned area, it is summer in south central Texas so be sure to take precautions when dealing with the outdoor heat. This will be of greater importance as we get further into the week (discussed in the long term section). A secondary focus for the short term is the chance for an isolated shower or thunderstorm during the afternoon hours today and Monday as the seabreeze makes inland progress. Despite general downward trend in CAMs, will hang onto low end POPs across the Coastal Plains for both days. Should these storms develop, the primary concern would be brief locally heavy rain and possibly gusty winds due to precip drag. They would also get a very brief reprieve from the heat. Otherwise, dry (yet humid) conditions will prevail for the remainder of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 115 PM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 A persistent summertime regime will prevail across South-Central Texas through the long term period as mid-level ridging dominates the pattern while broad surface high pressure extends across the eastern Gulf of Mexico into the Western Atlantic. Rain chances remain minimal with subsidence underneath the ridge. However, the ridge looks to start transitioning later this week and re-align farther to the east into and through this upcoming weekend. This realignment could help the seabreeze activate slightly better and possibly allow for isolated showers or convection to advance far enough inland to enter portions of our coastal plain counties. Otherwise, most locations will stay rain free. Despite the highs only slightly above average, heat will be the main hazard through the long term as dew points remain elevated and not as efficiently mixed each afternoon with the combination of the moist light to moderate flow off the Gulf of Mexico and the uptick in the soil moistures from recent rainfall. Elevated heat indices up into the 105 to 110 degree range could make Heat Advisories possible for portions of South-Central Texas each afternoon. The most favored locations are likely to align along and southeast of the I-35 corridor. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1158 AM CDT Sun Jun 23 2024 VFR conditions expected to prevail through 03z at all terminals. Isolated convection along the seabreeze should remain south of the terminals this afternoon. Overnight, MVFR stratus is expected to develop at KAUS, KSSF, and KSAT and persist through the morning hours before mixing out. KDRT could see this stratus as well, however confidence in it resulting in a change in flight category is too low to include in prevailing. VFR will will prevail through the final hours of this TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 77 97 77 97 / 0 0 0 0 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 75 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 New Braunfels Muni Airport 76 95 76 96 / 0 10 0 0 Burnet Muni Airport 75 96 76 95 / 0 0 0 0 Del Rio Intl Airport 79 99 80 101 / 0 0 0 0 Georgetown Muni Airport 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 0 0 Hondo Muni Airport 76 96 76 97 / 0 10 0 0 San Marcos Muni Airport 74 95 75 96 / 0 10 0 0 La Grange - Fayette Regional 76 94 76 94 / 0 10 0 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 77 96 77 96 / 0 10 0 0 Stinson Muni Airport 77 96 77 97 / 0 10 0 0 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ Short-Term...36 Long-Term...Brady Aviation...36